Leaked results from Zimbabwe indicate that Morgan Tsvangirai and the Movement for Democratic Change outpolled President Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF by 47% to 43% in last month's election. If these results hold the stage will be set for the expected runoff between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. And if they do hold, Tsvangirai will be unable reasonably to boycott the runoff, which he had initially threatened when he felt that he had won the polling outright.
So, far from endgame, Zimbabwe is, in most meaningful ways, right where it was more than a month ago. Everything in the last month has led Zimbabwe to a more tattered version of status quo ante. Except that Mugabe has had more time to cajole and pressure and coerce and brutalize opposition supporters and intimidate those on the fence. The runoff is to happen within three weeks of the official results being announced. In sum, the maelstrom has just begun.
