Robert Mugabe's thugocracy can surely endure run-of-the-mill catastrophes like the Zimbabwe National Water Authority (Zinwa) shutting down Harare's water supplies to try to strangle the country's cholera epidemic and the concomitant riots that have resulted. But for some time the wild card of Mugabe's ability to endure has been the loyalty of the police, military, and the rest of the security apparatus that all Big Men build around themselves.
Once again the loyalties of the men with uniforms and guns may become a factor in Mugabe's ability to weather recent storms. Troop riots over pay that fueled clashes in the streets between soldiers and police surely bode ill for Mugabe. After all, the security forces take sides most often because it is in their interest to do so. Once those interests are up for grab, the dynamic shifts substantially. If Mugabe's government can no longer pay those who carry out Mugabe's will, those who carry out Mugabe's will may decide that someone else's will is worth pursuing.
