Zuma Off the Hook

In what figures to be  an explosive judgment, it appears that South Africa’s  National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) is set to drop its corruption charges against ANC President Jacob Zuma, clearing the way for him to become the country’s next President following April’s election. The justification for the NPA’s decision is still-unclear allegations of machinations, apparently on the part of Thabo Mbeki’s administration, that some on the media are beginning to call “Mbekigate.” Mbeki’s office denies any involvement whatsoever.

Soon enough, presumably, the whole sordid story will emerge, but the NPA may have faced an impossible dilemma. No matter what happened, it would face accusations of politicizing the judicial process, a politicization that the politicians had already long undertaken.

So what are the likely consequences? Well, the ANC is very, very, very happy this morning. The corruption charges hanging over Zuma had caused many to flee the ANC and many more to consider doing so. The ANC decision should stanch that bleeding for those who were more concerned with the disruptive effects of a Zuma prosecution. Of course the very fact that the likely future president was in that position will remain disquieting to many, but this is the best possible outcome for Zuma and the ANC. Consequently, it is pretty bad news for the Congress of the People, which almost certainly has benefited from the Zuma charges even if only as an unspoken subtext. The newest developments are also bad news for Thabo Mbeki, whose reputation is likely to take yet another hit if Machiavellian maneuverings on his part really provide the bedrock for the decision to drop the charges. Finally, interim President Kgalema Motlanthe will assuredly find himself back in the shadows after April.

Expect a good deal of commentary on this across the spectrum of South African media in the days and weeks to come. And with it expect a healthy dose of recriminations. But let there be no doubt about it — this is the best possible gift the ANC could have received heading into the election. It would be an extreme irony if this gift comes as the result of Thabo Mbeki’s attempts to work behind the scenes to undermine Zuma.