No-one Knows Who Will Be Next

That question, asked at Russia’s opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta back in 2006, after the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, was answered on Wednesday with the slaying of human rights activist Natalya Estemirova.

“Who is to blame for Natalya’s murder?”, asks Oleg Orlov, head of Moscow-based Memorial. “His name is Ramzan Kadyrov.”

Indeed, writes the Christian Science Monitor, “Memorial, the Russian human rights organization that Ms. Estemirova worked with, and other human rights experts here say her death can be added to a fast-growing price tag for a Faustian pact. They say that pro-Moscow strongman Ramzan Kadyrov “pacified” rebellious Chechnya, and in exchange, the Kremlin agreed to turn a blind eye to his methods”.

This dreadful situation is not unique to Russia: Pakistan, the most recent example of outsourcing state sovereignty, has struck a similar bargain with the Swat Islamists. In exchange for guaranteeing its borders and receiving a lukewarm backing from the tribes, the state has allowed the ruling forces in the territory to dispense its feudal mode of justice, which has resulted in beatings, religious fundamentalism and honour killings.

But the very example of Pakistan should give Russia’s leaders food for thought. Whilst seemingly a good short term solution for dealing with terroritial threats, this practice can only bring grave problems later on.

Kadyrov, whose father himself defected to the Russian side from the rebels, can seriously blackmail the Kremlin into giving him even greater powers, without any guarantee that he will not mount an opposition himself. Moreover, after any more such political murders, his regime is beginning to differ less and less from the sort of thing radical rebel Basayev had in mind for the republic.

Putin and Medvedev may have already started to realise the dangerous and unpredictable nature of such an empowered ruler as Kadyrov. But, as with the Taliban and the CIA that had ‘created’ it in the 1980s, it may prove very difficult, if not impossible, to rein him in should he choose to turn against his old masters.