Foreign Policy Blogs

The Burma Spring

The Burma SpringAs pro-democracy movements swept across the globe over the past year and the list of dictators and autocratic governments toppling, or trying desperately to avoid doing so, continued to grow, a common postulation I heard was whether or not there would be a regime that would appear ahead of the curve of their own protests? After Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and Hosni Mubarak fell to popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt respectively, the contagion of social discontent rapidly proliferated to neighboring states; Libya quickly devolved into civil war, followed by protests in Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain, and Syria, each having been met with divaricating levels of repression by state security forces.

If I was the political leader of an autocratic nation, I might have begun to hedge my bets against my own domestic uprising, perhaps offering overtures, however small or insignificant, as a means of placating this restless movement.

Could the government of Myanmar be the answer to this question?

Over the past few weeks, the government of President Thein Sein has allowed the release of up to 100 political prisoners and plans to release more in due course. Moreover, media restrictions have been lifted (the BBC broadcasted a live segment recently with the full knowledge of the Burmese government), and trade unions will be allowed to form and workers to strike, according to a new law passed in October.

Such conciliatory efforts have resulted in opposition leader and Burma’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi to announce that her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), may plan to re-register and may even participate in upcoming by-elections, pending the outcome of an NLD meeting on November 17th at which the party’s platform will likely be decided.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations was impressed enough with the gradual changes in the country to award the chair of the regional organization to Myanmar for 2014. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa told the BBC that the move, decided unanimously by ASEAN members, will be a way to encourage Myanmar to continue its liberalization. “We’re trying to ensure the process of change continues,” he said.

It is another example of the “Asian Way,” that inimitable operational code so uniquely Asian and which also serves as a diplomatic tool and conflict resolution mechanism for the region’s myriad actors. In other areas of the world, Myanmar’s checkered history may well have been used against it: routinely terrorizing its own citizens, violently quelling protests, and a virtual consensus of condemnation amongst the international community.

But as Mr. Natalegawa said, “it’s not about the past.” Many human rights advocates have given their lives for their cause in Burma. However, if their efforts served to make the current government of Myanmar not only think twice about sponsoring another crackdown – especially in the wake of the large pro-democracy protests occurring throughout the world – but by also advancing Burma’s own democracy movement, then their sacrifices were surely worth it.

 

Author

Tim LaRocco

Tim LaRocco is an adjunct professor of political science at St. Joseph's College in New York. He was previously a Southeast Asia based journalist and his articles have appeared in a variety of political affairs publications. He is also the author of "Hegemony 101: Great Power Behavior in the Regional Domain" (Lambert, 2013). Tim splits his time between Long Island, New York and Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Twitter: @TheRealMrTim.