On August 3rd the White House released an eight-page strategy for countering extremism entitled “Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States.” The strategy, which took over a year to produce, lays out three areas of improvement: enhancing engagement with appropriate local communities, building government and law enforcement expertise in the area of violent extremism, and countering violent extremist propaganda.

Some responded favorably to the strategy, such as some Muslim American groups. The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) issued a statement supporting the new plan. CAIR National Director Nihad Awad affirmed, “Any effective strategy must avoid viewing the relationship between the American Muslim community and government agencies solely through the prism of national security… (It) should recognize Muslims as partners in projecting the best of American principles and values to the world.” Farhana Khera of Muslim Advocates stated, “In the wake of increasing anti-Muslim hate and the recent horrific attacks in Norway, we are heartened that the president recognizes that violence motivated by extremist beliefs is not unique to one racial, ethnic or faith community… All Americans must act together to address the challenge, and the administration’s strategy is a good start.”

Not everyone reacted so favorably. House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Peter King, who held controversial hearings this year on Muslim radicalization in the U.S., believed the strategy was going for a “politically correct feel-good” approach. “My concerns are with language in the report which suggests some equivalency of threats between Al Qaeda and domestic extremists and also with the politically correct inference that legitimate criticism of certain radical organizations or elements of the Muslim-American community should be avoided,” King said. Similarly, Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Joe Lieberman stated, “We continue to be disappointed that the administration remains reluctant to identify violent Islamist extremism as the main cause of the homegrown terrorist threat.” Lieberman also complained that the strategy failed to designate a federal agency to lead the counter extremism effort.

According to POLITICO, Deputy National Security Adviser Ben Rhodes affirmed the strategy was crafted in part out of a recognition that Al Qaeda is increasingly looking to use Americans and U.S. residents to mount attacks. “We saw Al Qaeda shifting its tactics… We wanted to make sure we responded to that… We explicitly prioritize Al Qaeda in the strategy. We go out of our way within the strategy to say the greatest threat comes from Al Qaeda and its affiliates,” Rhodes said.

Indeed, in laying out “The Challenge,” the strategy states: “Today, as detailed in the National Security Strategy and the National Strategy for Counterterrorism, al-Qa’ida and its affiliates and adherents represent the preeminent terrorist threat to our country. We know that these groups are actively seeking to recruit or inspire Americans to carry out attacks against the United States, particularly as they are facing greater pressure in their safe-havens abroad.”

While the strategy does state that Al Qaeda is the foremost terrorist threat to the U.S., it paints a rather broad picture of how to counter this threat. The three-pillared approach appears to be heading in a positive direction, but without concrete details of how for example, law enforcement will improve its expertise in preventing violent extremism, it is difficult to tell how successful this strategy will be.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard

It’s not exactly yellow cake, but the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the US Treasury Department accused Iran of aiding and partnering with Al Qaeda:

The U.S. for the first time formally accused Iran of forging an agreement with al Qaeda, helping operatives move money, arms and fighters through Iranian territory to the terrorist group’s bases in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

The U.S. Treasury Department outlined on Thursday what it said was an extensive fund-raising operation devised by al Qaeda that utilizes Iran-based operatives and draws from donors in oil-rich Persian Gulf countries such as Kuwait and Qatar.

The story needs more flesh, but this is still pretty alarming. The American public has been told for years that Iran did not have a partnership with Al Qaeda and in fact likely viewed the transnational terrorist group as an enemy (Shia – Sunni battle), but this evidence shows otherwise. It would be one thing if Al Qaeda just had operatives in Iran, but the Treasury Department said:

.. it had sanctioned six al Qaeda members for allegedly overseeing this network. The network’s head, Syrian-national Ezedin Abdul Aziz Khalil, is based in Iran and has been operating there under an agreement with Iranian authorities since 2005, according to senior U.S. officials.

The key part is ‘under an agreement with Iranian authorities’. Like I said before, there is much more that needs to be fleshed out of this connection before we can fully accuse top Iranian leaders of aiding and abetting America’s number one enemy, but if ever the Obama administration needed a  ‘smoking gun’ to rally public opinion and pressure the Islamic Republic, this is it.

Please see the June 2011 issue for an article I wrote on Sayyid Qutb’s continuing relationship with Al Qaeda:

With the death of Osama Bin Laden, there have been much speculations as to who would take his place as the leader of the Al Qaeda. It is highly likely that the next leader will be someone who has a deep and profound allegiance to the teachings of Sayyid Qutb. Through the years, Al Qaeda has consistently used Qutb’s ideas to further its aims of a global jihad.

The full article can be found here or from the ICPVTR’s homepage at http://pvtr.org/

Undated file photograph of Sayyid Qutb (1906 -1966). Image Credit: Encyclopedia of the Orient http://looklex.com/e.o/qutb_s.htm

‘World is Safer and Better Place Because of the Death of Osama bin Laden’

President Obama

You got that right, Mr. President. The death of Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of numerous crimes against the United States and humanity, including mass murder, at the hands of an American soldier is justice served. Bin Laden’s orchestrated attack against the United States on 9/11 was an act that will live in infamy in this country and to all those who watched those two towers fall. His death does not bring the nearly 3,000 fallen back to our lives, but it can’t help but bring some form of closure. This successful action also makes something very clear: If you mess with the United States and threaten our safety and way of life, you will get the horns!

A few thoughts:

• The braveness shown by the group of Navy Seals/CIA (details of course our sketchy), who were dropped from the sky to probably the most hostile of environments to carry out one of the most crucial, historical, and dangerous missions in American history, is hard to comprehend. They are heros through and through and have earned our eternal gratitude.

• This successful mission could not have been accomplished without years of hard work by our nation’s intelligence agencies, military forces, and diplomats and all of them deserve all the accolades coming to them.

• President Obama showed great leadership and of course this mission could not have happened without it. His presidency will forever be known as the one that got Osama, and like his quote above, the US and world are all the better for it.

• Though the details and facts of this amazing mission are still coming in, it seems that it could never have been accomplished without information gathered by the much-maligned CIA during the crucial and headspinning days/years after the 9/11 attack. It seems that Khalid Sheikh Mohammed gave up the name of the courier that led the US to Osama’s compound 5 years ago. This strategic information might never have been acquired without the Bush administration’s stress on capturing Al Qaeda figures alive so they could be interrogated. The success of this mission indeed has many fathers, and former President Bush and his staff definitely belong among them.

• This fight is far from over. Al Qaeda’s No. 2 al-Zawahriwi is still alive and free and this must change. He is a powerful figure and in many ways was the leader of Al Qaeda’s strategy and logistics. Violent attacks against the US by Islamic radicals did not all funnel from Osama Bin Laden, either. The failed bombing attempts in Time Square (car), Detroit (underwear bomber, plane), and Portland (Christmas tree), just to name a few, had no known direct links to Osama’s camp, but nevertheless they were real and dangerous and their threat is still alive.

• The big elephant in the room now is American and NATO’s mission in Afghanistan. Already I have heard in the media and among some colleagues about declaring ‘mission accomplished’ and ‘getting out’. Though I disagree with this, I do believe Osama’s death is going to be a game changer. More on this later.

So good riddance to human garbage and big cheers to all those who helped make our country and the world a bit safer and much more just.

On March 29, 2011, India and Pakistan concluded bilateral talks in New Delhi which are expected to lead to a formal investigation into the Mumbai terror attacks. The talks were the first formal dialogue since the 2008 attacks, which halted the two countries’ highly unstable peace process and stunted the joint terror investigation.

Pakistan has agreed to host an Indian investigative delegation, marking a breakthrough in relations between the two restive neighbors. Dates for the visits were to be decided in four to six weeks. Additionally, India’s Home Secretary Shri Gopal K. Pillai and Pakistan’s Interior Secretary Qamar Zaman Chaudhry issued a joint statement affirming that both sides would set up a hotline between the interior secretaries to facilitate real-time information sharing regarding terrorist threats. During the talks, India also shared information on a 2007 train bombing that killed more than 60 people, mostly Pakistanis.

India broke off formal peace talks with Pakistan following the Mumbai bombings. The Indian government implicated the Pakistan-based organization Lashkar e Tayyiba (LeT) in the 26-29 November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, in which gunmen using automatic weapons and grenades attacked several sites, killing 166 people and leaving at least 300 wounded. Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, the lone living gunman in the attack claimed he was fighting on behalf of LeT. In May of 2010 Kasab was tried and sentenced to death by hanging.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, LeT gathers donations from the Pakistani expatriate community in the Persian Gulf and the UK as well as from Islamic NGOs, Pakistani and Kashmiri businessmen, and Saudi Arabia. In addition, and what should be of great interest to the Indian government, experts say LeT also receives funding from Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI.

“The talks are extremely positive. We have moved forward and the trust deficit has reduced,” the Indian home secretary told reporters following the closure of the peace talks. One can only hope the two days of talks will lead to a disruption in terrorist activity between the two countries, however a couple days of formal dialogue will not change a history of secrecy and war lasting on and off for over sixty years.

Representative Peter King, a Republican from Long Island, appears to harbor a fierce unhappiness with the Muslim community in the United States. As the chairman of the powerful Homeland Security Committee, Congressman King has all the clout he needs to act on his displeasure.

Despite this rather odious implication that King is a bigot and unfairly targeting Muslims, Herbert gives not one real piece of evidence of his claim. Do you know what there is actual evidence to support though? The fact that the United States does indeed face a troubling growth in homegrown terrorist activity, which sadly, but truthfully, mostly comes from those of Muslim backgrounds. According to Gregory Treverton of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Global Risk and Security, there were 46 publicly reported cases of radicalization and recruitment of jihadist terrorism, involving 125 individuals in the US between 9/11 and the beginning of 2010. Those numbers do not include Richard Reid, who plotted his attack outside the US, or Faisal Shahzad, the Times Square bomber. In 2009, there were two fatal attacks from homegrown products targeting Americans: the Fort Hood massacre (13 killed, 31 wounded) and the murder of another American soldier at an Arkansas recruiting office. Lest we also forget Mohamed Mohamud, who last November pressed a button believing it would blow up hundreds of families watching the lighting of the downtown Portland Christmas tree. I could go on…

So to argue or even insinuate that homegrown terrorism, particularly of the Islamist variation, is not a serious national security is to ignore the reality of the past ten years. Rep. King’s hearing is not happening to put American Muslims in a poor light. If done correctly, it will just highlight a disturbing trend in the radicalization of a small segment of our population that poses a threat to all of our safety and well being. No one gives American Islam a worse name than those who seek to kill and maim in the religion’s name. To defeat an enemy, you have to know it. It does no one any good to hide behind political correctness and baseless claims of racism.

Patrick Frost, Senior Blogger

Indonesia, a predominantly Muslim nation of 240 million, has battled extremists since 2002, when members of the al-Qaida-linked network Jemaah Islamiyah bombed two nightclubs on the resort island of Bali, killing 202 people, most of them foreign tourists. Members of a violent offshoot of the group have continued to carry out near-annual strikes on embassies, beach-side restaurants and glitzy hotels since then, killing more than 60.

Tholut, also known as Mustofa, became one of the country’s most wanted fugitives after master bomb-makers Noordin M. Top and Dulmatin were gunned down earlier this year in a series of police raids. In 2001, Tholut was convicted for his involvement in a bomb that rocked a shopping plaza in central Jakarta which left six wounded. However, he was released five years later citing for good behaviour. Like dozens of Indonesia’s so-called “rehabilitated” terrorists, it he seems to have quickly returned to his old ways. Post his release, he is alleged to have helped in setting up a militant training camp for the home-grown terror cell, Jamaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT). JAT was uncovered by police in the westernmost province of Aceh in February. The organisation, led by Indonesia’s best-known radical cleric Abu Bakar Ba’asyir, has been an enigma since its founding in 2008. An ostensibly above-ground organisation, it has embraced individuals with known ties to fugitive extremists. It has welcomed many members of the militant Jema’ah Islamiyah (JI) but clashed with the JI leadership over strategy and tactics. The group’s main objective was to help recruit members and raise money to meet the broad objectives.

Police say that Abu Tholut was deeply involved in terrorist training in Aceh and armed robberies in North Sumatra province. The police has also informed that the cell was also plotting assassinations, including on President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to punish the state for lending support to the U.S.-led war on terrorism, and Mumbai-styled gun attacks on foreigners.

Indonesia has been widely praised for its anti-terror fight, arresting, bringing to trial and jailing hundreds of militants since 2002. The frequency of attacks has sharply declined, as have the number of deaths.

But experts warn that extremists continue to be a threat.

Dr. Singh said that India’s partnership with the 27-nation bloc European Union has evolved from economic and development cooperation to a broader strategic engagement. The Prime Minister will be in Brussels on the first leg of his two-nation European tour that will also take him to Germany for talks with German leaders including Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday. It is expected that the situation in Afghanistan and Climate Change, the state of the global economy and the role of the G-20 in the recovery process will also come up for discussions during Dr. Singh’s talks with European Leaders.

India has been rather keen on substantiating its cooperation in counter-terrorism with the European Union. Towards this end the India is likely to sign an agreement on enhancing cooperation in the field with the European Union. Media reports quoted Lars-Olof Lindgren, Ambassador of Sweden as saying that “an agreement to enhance security cooperation may be signed between the two sides during the summit”. The EU’s Counter-Terrorism Coordinator Gilles de Kerchove has had wide ranging talks with Indian officials. They also have to up to a month to explore possibility of broadening cooperation between the two sides on security related issues. Intelligence sharing, research and development of skills of counter-terror security forces are some of the areas identified by Kerchove.

Interesting, in neighbouring Pakistan, Prime Minister Mr. Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani speaking in an interview with a Turkish channel reiterated his country’s firm resolve to fight against terrorism and militancy. Towards achieving this end he stressed on the need for enhanced regional cooperation to root out this menace for peace, prosperity and socio-economy development of the region. “Terrorism is a regional problem and there should be a regional solution. There should be increased cooperation in the fight against terrorism”, Gilani said.

Interesting this call by the leaders of the Gulf nations on December 7 at the 31st Summit meet of the Gulf Cooperation Council comes at a time when Internet whistleblower site, WikiLeaks has made public diplomatic cables that revel the perception in the US Administration and its concern over the funding that the terror groups receive from donors in the mid-east nations. As reports in the New York Times quoted a classified memo sent out in December 2009 by the US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton which was leaked out by WikiLeaks says that “donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terror groups worldwide”. It further goes on to quote her as saying that “it has been an ongoing challenge to persuade Saudi officials to treat terrorist financing from Saudi Arabia as a strategic priority”. Other nations in the region where fund raising activities for extremist groups have also caused serious concern include the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. The classified document also points out that the al-Qaeda, the Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba (the group that carried out the terror attacks in Mumbai, India in 2008) and others “probably raise millions of dollars annually from Saudi sources, often during Hajj and Ramadan” when fundraisers for the groups fan out to seek money for their causes.

The communiqué issued by the GCC called on the United Nations to create a Centre that will enhance national, regional and international efforts to counter terrorism through the exchange of information and expertise to watch terrorist organisations and foil their schemes. All the GCC member states have agreed to a common strategic approach to fight terrorism, sending a clear message that terrorism is unacceptable in all its forms and manifestation, and resolving to take practical steps individually and collectively to prevent and combat it. The spread of al-Qaeda was a top item of concern for the leaders. The GCC heads of state also vowed to stand with the international community in fighting terrorism. They cited the fear spread by al-Qaeda in the region; condemning terrorist plots that they said were aimed at murdering innocents, spread destruction and halt development. Analysts have warned that Gulf countries faced a range of threats, including internal ones to the stability of their regimes.

It is notable that the Saudi administration has recently been cracking down on terror suspects. Major countries in the Gulf pre-dominantly have a monarchical form of government, which understandably means that they have to seek to safeguard their regimes. In doing so the dilemma of these nations is in finding the ideal middle path – toeing the line of countering global terrorism and at the same time ensuring that they do not unwarrantedly antagonise their local communities and the global Ulema.

The blast took place around 6:35 PM just five minutes after the Ganga Aarti. Media reports, quoted Union Home Secretary GK Pillai as confirming that the blast was a terror strike carried out by Indian Mujhaideen. Indian Mujahideen is a Pakistan based Islamic terrorist group in India that has claimed responsibility for several attacks against innocent targets in India recently. The India Mujahideen is believed to be a “shadow amalgam of the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and Lashkar-e-Toiba”.

It was confirmed that a two-year-old girl, succumbed to her injuries. Thirty-two people including five or six foreign tourists are also known to have been injured in the blast. Media reports quoted government officials as saying that seven to eight people were injured in the blast but the numbers increased because a railing at the ghat broke leading to a small stampede. About 15 people were injured in the stampede.

Police also recovered an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) from a dustbin near the blast site. Senior police officials were unable to confirm the nature of the blast and said that only a thorough investigation would reveal the exact nature of the terror strike. Immediately following the blast, the Indian Mujahideen accused of having carried out the attack, sent out an e-mail to media houses claiming that the blast in Varanasi was carried out in retaliation to the verdict in the Babri Masjid-Ram Janambhoomi title suit case. Also known as the Ayodhya dispute, it revolves around the claim over the land in Ayodhya, which is considered scared by Hindus as it is believed to be the birthplace of Lord Ram while Muslims seek to defend the Babri Masjid at the site. The Babri Masjid which was a 16th century mosque in Ayodhya was pulled down by Hindu Karsevaks on December 6, 1992 in an attempt to reclaim the land known as Ram Janmabhoomi.

In fact, India has been on alert a day after the anniversary of Babri Masjid demolition. Following the blast, a high alert has been sounded in other metros of India including Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad.

Unconfirmed, media reports suggest that the e-mail sent by the Indian Mujahideen taking responsibility for the blast was in fact prepared on December 6 and sent from Malad which is a suburb of Mumbai. The five-page e-mail was signed by ‘Al-Arbi’

Following the blast, the Prime Minister of India Dr. Manmohan Singh expressed concern over the attack and appealed to all to maintain calm and peace. “The blast is an attempt to weaken our resolve by evil forces of terrorism in which terrorists will not succeed,” he said.

Newspaper reports suggest that the suspects range in age from 21-30. The group also includes one woman member. They were detained following police raids in Athens, the port of Piraeus, the western town of Agrinio and the southern Mediterranean island of Crete Saturday.

It has been reported that all the six suspects were formally charged with three felonies, including participation in a terrorist group, aggravated arms possession and possession of explosive materials. The police will present the accused before an examining magistrate within a day or two.

Among those arrested, two members were wanted by the police in connection with a left-wing terrorist group, Conspiracy of Fire Nuclei, that was allegedly behind a series of parcel bombs sent to European leaders and embassies last month. Greece has a long history with domestic terrorism, which has left more than 40 people dead in the last three decades, including a British military attache, a CIA station chief, police officers, journalists and businessmen.

Interesting this blog covered an analytical article on the Terrorism Risk Index of various countries in with Greece has been ranked 24 on the list. It was reported that Greece faces a major challenge from left-wing terrorist groups. These groups have been the cause of the increased risk profile of the country. Between June 2009 and June 2010, Greece experienced about 180 attacks – more than took place in Yemen which is a country in the high risk zone. However it has been noted that attacks carried out by the left-wing groups tend to be non-fatal, but they can be highly disruptive in nature.

Police said that the first two suspects were arrested after officials discovered three submachine guns, seven handguns, grenades, 50 kg of explosive powder and 200 grams of TNT in a basement garage in the Athens suburb of Nea Smyrni. Anti-terrorist police then made further arrests in the Athens suburb of Kalithea, the central Athens neighbourhood of Exarchia, the central Greek town of Agrinio and on the island of Crete. Media reports quoted the police chief as saying that the arrests of the suspects was carried out based on the surveillance undertaken and after evidence showed they were planning a terrorist attack.

The Police believe that the terror suspects belong to a group which is known as the “Sect of Revolutionaries”. The Sect of Revolutionaries first emerged after the rioting over the death of teenager Alexis Grigoropoulos, killed by a police bullet in December 2008. Officials had initially said the weapons found were similar to the kind used by left-wing guerrilla group Sect of Revolutionaries, which claimed responsibility for the slaying of Sokratis Giolas, an investigative journalist and an anti-terrorist police officer. Giolas had been shot dead in front of his pregnant wife July 19 outside their Athens home.

The group has vowed to increase attacks on police, business people, prison guards and corrupt media, in addition to tourists.

A summary of the report released to this blog, indicates a notable increase of terrorism risk status of Greece and Russia. This is a prominent shift reflected in this year’s TRI when compared to the year report released by Maplecroft. Russia has moved up from medium risk category country into the high risk category. This, the report says, is primarily due to an increase in large-scale mass-casualty attacks carried out by separatists from the North Caucasus. The report indicates that March 2010 bombings on the Moscow Metro, for example, were the deadliest attacks on the city’s underground rail system and the first terrorist attack on Moscow’s Metro since 2004. In another attack in September 2010, a suicide car bomber detonated at the central market in Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia-Alania killing at least 17 and injuring more than 160.

However, the report indicates that the largest fall in rankings is in the case of Greece, which dropped from 57 to 24 to overtake Spain (27) and become the European country most at risk from terrorist attacks. The report agrees that not many people would expect Greece to emerge as a high risk country. However, the report says that the challenge Greece faces is from left-wing terrorism that has caused its increased risk profile. Between June 2009 and June 2010, the country experienced 180 attacks – more than took place in Yemen. Recently, small left-wing groups have re-emerged, attacking a range of targets. Attacks tend to be non-fatal, but they can be highly disruptive as was seen in early November 2010, when a series of parcel bombs were addressed to embassies in Athens as well as European leaders and institutions.

Another interesting trend that the TRI 2011 presents is in Yemen. The report says that Yemen saw a very significant increase in risk. It was included in the extreme risk category for the first time. This is due to an increase in the number of attacks on its soil as well as its use as a haven by al-Qaeda. Between June 2008 and June 2009, only 31 terrorist attacks were recorded in Yemen. This increased to a total of 109 attacks between June 2009 and June 2010. Yemen’s most infamous association with terrorism, however, is its apparent use as a haven for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP was behind an airliner bombing plot in December 2009 when a passenger attempted to set off plastic explosives on an international passenger flight from Schiphol Airport in the Netherlands, to Detroit Metropolitan Airport, USA. More recently, the group was behind a plot involving packages containing bombs sent from Yemen in cargo planes. Two were intercepted in the UK and Dubai.

The Terrorism Risk Index has been developed by Maplecroft, and comprises of three separate sub-indices: incidence – which calculates the frequency of attacks over a 12-month period (June 2009 – June 2010, the latest available data); intensity –a calculation of how lethal terrorist attacks are. The report indicates that in some countries like Greece for example, there have been a lot of small scale attacks that typically do not kill anyone. In other countries, like Iraq, Somalia and Afghanistan for example, terrorist attacks are designed to kill as many people as possible. The intensity index also counts the number of mass-casualty attacks per country. The third includes historical aspects– the historical component looks at a country’s past experience of terrorism, whether it has a long-standing militant group that has operated in the country, for instance, Colombia’s FARC which has been active since the 1960s. Based on these parameters the Index, released annually covers 196 countries.

The release from the company indicates that to maintain consistence in definition the data used for the analysis is taken up the US National Counter-terrorism Center’s Worldwide Incidents Tracking System (NCTC). The company agrees that terrorism by itself is hard to define, making it harder for analysts to review data. Hard still is the fact that the analysis of terror activities globally is influenced by various subjective factors. It agrees that there is “no universally agreed definition of terrorism and any attempt at defining such a politically-loaded word is bound to provoke debate.” Hence to overcome the ideological underpinnings that overstretch the definition of the phenomenon called terrorism, TRI adopts a very broad definition. For the purposes of the index, Maplecroft defines terrorism as “incidents in which sub-national or clandestine groups or individuals deliberately attack civilians or non-combatants (including military personnel and assets outside war zones and war-like settings).”

At a subjective level the report agrees that it is not always possible to determine an ideological motive for such attacks, nor the exact circumstances under which they occurred. The report notes that it is not always easy to distinguish where the perpetrators of the attacks are foreign nationals operating in a third country or are nationals from the same country where the attack takes place. Therefore, to capture the risk posed by al-Qaeda and other international Islamist groups, Maplecroft has introduced a component to the index which tracks whether a country has experienced an attack by al-Qaeda, al-Shabaab or similar, or whether it has been threatened by one of these groups.

The report draws up a list of countries that it considers to be at risk of an al-Qaeda attack (including al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb), or an attack by al-Shabaab or another international Islamist group. These countries are: Afghanistan, Algeria, Egypt, Israel, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Pakistan, Palestinian Occupied Territory, Somalia, Tajikistan, Uganda, USA, Uzbekistan and Yemen. The countries that have been threatened or have had failed plots by al-Qaeda or another international Islamist group include: Australia, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Canada, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Ethiopia, France, United Kingdom, Kenya, Kuwait, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Philippines, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkmenistan, Tunisia, Turkey, Oman and Qatar. Further the report indicates the other countries that are considered to be at risk due to regional proximity of such extremists groups. These include; Djibouti, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Libya, Tanzania and Nigeria.

The worst scoring on Maplecroft Terrorism Risk Index are sixteen countries rated as ‘extreme risk’ with Somalia (1), Pakistan (2), Iraq (3), Afghanistan (4), Palestinian Occupied Territories (5), Colombia (6), Thailand (7), Philippines (8), Yemen (9) and Russia (10). Maplecroft report found no major Western economies in the high or ‘extreme risk’ bracket; the United States (ranked 33 on the risk index), France (44) and the United Kingdom (46) all remain in the ‘medium-risk’ category. India is ranked 16 in the list, has been categorised as an ‘extreme risk’ nation in the index of global terror risk. “India experienced a total of 749 terrorist incidents between June 2009 and June 2010. This compares to 775 terrorist attacks between June 2008 and 2009, a year previously. Levels of terrorism in India have thus remained constant and the country’s ranking has remained in the extreme risk category,” the index explained. China rose to number 43 from number 54 due to an increase in the intensity of security incidents in 2008-09 compared to 2006-07. Iran rose to number 19 from number 25, due to insurgencies in Baluchistan and Khuzestan and rising anti-government sentiments and Egypt rose to number 54 from number 66, due to a spate of minor security incidents in late 2008 and early 2009.

Maplecroft's Analysis of Terror Risk Countries

Terrorism Blog wishes to thank Jason McGeown, Communications Manager at Maplecroft for kindly providing a summary of the TRI for this report.

Media reports quoting, intelligence agencies in Pakistan reveal that the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been planning to carry out suicide attacks across Pakistan during the holy month of Muharram. The targets include foreign consulate, multinational companies, NGOs and schools where foreigners are working. It is also reported that Hafiz Saeed, chief of Jamat-ud-Dawa (JuD), the organisation banned by the UN, is also purportedly a target of terrorists. Ironically Hafiz Saeed, is also accused of having links to the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group and is considered in India as being the key mastermind of the Mumbai terror attacks of November 2008. India has been for a long time demanding that Hafiz Saeed be handed over to stand trial.

The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (or the Student Movement of Pakistan) is the main Taliban militant umbrella group in Pakistan. The TTP is primarily in conflict with the central government of Pakistan. Among the group’s stated objectives are resistance against the Pakistani army, enforcement of Sharia law, and attacks against American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Intelligence reports also suggest that Barelvi and Shia religious leaders and their mosques, foreigners working in flood affected areas and the Kot Addu power plant are under threat. A news report in the Express Tribune indicated that the Punjab Province police have received intelligence reports indicating the most likely targets that terrorist groups could hit. The newspaper pointed out that the two-page intelligence report received by the Punjab Police also added that Shia processions in the month of Muharram could be easy targets and that an improved security plan was needed to ensure their safety. The city police have accordingly been directed to enhance the security for Shia and Barelvi scholars and at their mosques.

For some time now, Hafiz Saeed, has been in the focus as a prime target of the TTP. Independent observers believe that this could be because of his proximity to the Pakistani establishment. Unlike the Tailban which has direct likes with the al-Qaeda, the Lashkar, with its primary focus on targeting India, has, under the guidance of Saeed remained more loyal towards Islamabad’s policies than other militant groups. Many also suspect Saeed and other Dawa leaders of having played a role in the 2002 arrest of some top al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. These operatives, including a top al-Qaeda leader, Abu Zubaydah, were arrested from a Lashkar safe house in the city of Faisalabad. Thus, his loyalty to Islamabad makes him a potential target for groups opposed to the Pakistani establishment.

Kerchove was speaking through a written presentation to EU interior or home affairs ministers, which they were to debate on Thursday. He pointed out that there was a need to bring about a “step-change in the amount which the EU devotes to counter-terrorism assistance”. He went on to add that, “if the EU is to be a serious actor in promoting global stability … it needs to put proper resources behind this.” In his presentation, Kerchove said that the aviation sector remained a high priority target for Islamist militants, and that Europe’s land transport networks were also inadequately protected from an attack if it was to happen.

At the meeting being held in Brussels, Interior or Home Affairs ministers of EU nations are also due to deliberate on ways of increasing air cargo security. The urgent need for this deliberation has been felt after bombs were found on U.S.-bound planes in October. There is also a call for the sharing of passenger data with Washington in pursuit of suspects. Along with the threat of bomb attacks there has also been spate of arrests of people suspected of planning Islamist attacks in Europe and travel warnings in the EU that have highlighted growing security concerns in the region. Such concerns are also seen as being behind a U.S. travel warning for Europe in October, triggered by intelligence on a plot against European targets reportedly originating with a group based in mountainous northern region of Pakistan. It was believed that some members of this group were European citizens. Kerchove in his statement pointed out that it has been noted that in majority of plots detected over the last few years there has been an increasing involvement of such ‘foreign fighters’, European or American nationals.

Broadly speaking, policy documents of the European Union state that member nations have the primary responsibility for combating terrorism and the EU adds value towards this effort in four main ways. These include strengthening national capabilities, facilitating regional cooperation, developing collective capabilities and promoting international partnership. This current call for increasing financial assistance to national governments affected by the scourge of terrorism can be seen as a step in this direction. However, only time will tell how far these efforts actually enable countries affected by terrorism, to tackle the menace.

Based on media reports it can be assumed that the operation is a result of a long drawn investigation process. Reports suggest that the operation was carried out in conjunction with the police forces of Thailand and of European countries, and is continuing. A statement from the Spain’s Interior Ministry suggested that in a related operation three others – two Pakistanis and a Thai – were held in Thailand as part of the same “Operation Kampai”.

Preliminary indications suggest that the gang used to steal documents, including passports, which were then sent to Thailand to be forged and then delivered to al-Qaeda-linked “terrorist groups”, in particular the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, which has been accused of plotting the Mumbai attacks. It was further reported that the group is also linked to the defeated Sri Lankan separatist group the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.

During the investigation process spread over a span of 18 months, the police in Spain unearthed a number of stolen passports taken from Spain to Thailand, which were stolen almost entirely in the province of Barcelona from tourists who met the requirements stipulated by the ‘World Islamic Front’ in order to be used by members of different terrorist cells linked to al-Qaeda. The World Islamic Front is the organization that issued the World Islamic Front Statement of 23 February 1998, “Jihad Against Jews and Crusaders”, listing the actions of Americans that they claim conflict with “Allah’s order”, and stating that the Front’s “ruling to kill the Americans and their allies—civilians and military—is an individual duty for every Muslim who can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it.” Terrorism experts consider the “World Islamic Front” synonymous with al-Qaeda. (Source: Wikipedia)

It is now known that the international network was led by a Pakistani national living in Thailand and who has been detained by authorities there. He would direct the cells based in Europe, decided the features of the passports to obtain and, which once they were received in Bangkok, supplied them to different terrorist groups. The Spanish Ministry statement also said that the arrests had succeeded in neutralising a vast cell involved in providing support to terror groups such as the al-Qaeda.

The Spanish police have been on the trail of terror groups for some time now. Last August, Spanish police had arrested a Moroccan man suspected of recruiting Islamic extremists over the internet and raising funds for terrorist groups. Again in September, police in Barcelona had detained an Algerian-born US citizen suspected of raising funds for al-Qaeda’s North African branch.