On Thursday, the House passed the Protecting Investment in Oil Shale, the Next Generation of Environmental, Energy and Resource Security (PIONEERS) Act, H.R. 3408, with a vote of 237-187. Though oil shale drilling is ostensibly the main topic of the bill, with its passage, the House has also approved drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR)’s coastal plain, Lease Sale 214, and Keystone XL.

The PIONEERS Act was originally part of the American Energy and Infrastructure Jobs Act of 2012 (HR 7), which has yet to be voted on. PIONEERS – Titles XIV and XVII of the original bill – was broken out and voted upon separately, since that way, it would be easier to pass without the threat of opposition from some Republicans who oppose HR 7. Title XIV would force the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to issue a permit to construct Keystone XL upon receiving an application. Though the proposed Canada-U.S. pipeline currently falls under the purview of the State Department since it crosses an international border, Title XIV declares that if the FERC has received an application to construct a pipeline but has not made a decision within thirty days, “the permit shall be deemed to have been issued.”

Map of Lease Sale 214 area.

Two parts of the PIONEERS Act concern the Arctic. First, Section 17305 would order the Secretary of the Interior to conduct Lease Sale 214 within one year of the passage of the bill. An amendment made by Representative Doc Hastings (D-WA), which was agreed to, necessitates that the lease sale be held before 2015. This sale would issue oil and gas leases to companies for drilling in the North Aleutian Basin Outer Continental Shelf Planning Area, specifically around Bristol Bay. Lease Sale 214 was cancelled by President Barack Obama in March 2010. Though the administration supports exploratory drilling in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar stated at the time, “In our quest to secure our energy future, we must not lose the places and values that set our nation apart…Bristol Bay is a national treasure that we must protect for future generations.”

Subtitle C of the PIONEERS Act is also known as the Alaskan Energy for American Jobs Act, originally introduced by Representatives Hastings and Don Young (R-AK). It would repeal Section 1003 of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act (1980), which prohibits oil and gas production in ANWR. Drilling in the Coastal Plain (Section 10-02) in ANWR, which constitutes approximately 3% of the refuge’s area, would thus be allowed. The bill also states that the Final Legislative Environmental Impact Statement on the Coastal Plain, which was completed in 1987, is adequate with respect to “prelease activities.” No further studies are needed before creating a leasing program. While a new environmental impact statement will need to be carried out for other activities that follow prelease activities, “The Secretary shall only identify a preferred action for such leasing and a single leasing alternative, and analyze the environmental effects and potential mitigation measures for those two alternatives.” It will not be required to look into non-leasing alternatives.

Sadlerochit Mountains. (c) Roy Corral

Subtitle C does offer one small bone to environmentalists. Up to 45,000 of the 1.5 million acres (3%) that constitute the Coastal Plain may be designated a “Special Area” with special management and regulatory protections. HR 3408 already sets aside one specific place, the 4,000 acre Sadlerochit Spring area. Oil exploration and development can be excluded from these special areas, and even if a permit is issued to retrieve hydrocarbons from the area, “there shall be no surface occupancy of the lands comprising the Special Area,” so as to reduce the footprint of the oil and gas industry. Overall, for any 100,000 acres of land leased in ANWR, no more than 10,000 can be “covered by production and support facilities.” Furthermore, production can only take place between November 1 and May 1 of each year, and it can be stopped at any time to allow for caribou calving and other “fish and wildlife breeding, denning, nesting, spawning, and migration.”

Within 22 months of the enactment of PIONEERS, the Secretary of the Interior would have to offer 50,000 acres for lease. Following this lease sale, another 50,000 more acres would have to be offered for lease at 6-, 12-, and 18-month intervals. Then, up to four more sales of 100,000 acres each would also have to be held within two years after the last sale, so long as there was sufficient interest. The oil companies would have to pay a 12.5% royalty on any revenues generated by oil and gas drilling. They’d also ultimately be responsible for reclaiming affected areas, returning them to their prior, undisturbed states.

With this bill, the Republicans seem to be aiming for development of ANWR to benefit Americans – and nobody else. All construction materials and employees are encouraged to come from the U.S. While many would like to believe that what the bill calls the “vast talents of United States workers” would be adequate to undertake energy development in ANWR, in reality, it’s likely that a shortage of skilled laborers would force oil companies to look abroad. At the oil sands in Fort McMurray, Alberta, Canada, for instance, workers come from all over the world: the Multicultural Association of Fort McMurray‘s website states that there are at least 140-150 “ethno-cultures” represented. On top of encouraging the use of domestic talent, HR 7 bans the export of oil produced from the lease sale areas. This is in the same vein as the Trans-Alaska Pipeline Authorization Act of 1973, which more or less prohibits the export of oil drilled on the North Slope. Yet having to ship the oil in U.S. tankers down to the Lower 48 often results in shipping costs of up to $5 a barrel [1], more than if it was just shipped across the North Pacific Ocean to Northeast Asia. Still, those who champion drilling in ANWR also tend to promote energy self-reliance, so it would be preposterous to them to export America’s hard-won oil abroad.

Representative Young stated, “This is my 12th time passing ANWR out of the House and although this is a momentous day, there is still work to be done…The Senate should not drag its feet on this bill. The American people are sick and tired of high energy prices, high unemployment, and out of control deficits – they want cheap energy created here in America and that is exactly what this bill will do.”

The bill won’t do anything, though, if the Senate rejects it as expected. Permission to drill in ANWR has only made it out of the Senate to the president’s desk once, and Bill Clinton vetoed it in 1996. Expect the controversy to continue for a long time.

Sources

[1] “Time to End the Alaskan Oil Export Ban,” Samuel Van Vactor, Cato Institute

“House passes quartet of energy bills, but Senate prospects dim,” E&E Reporting

“U.S. House passes drilling-friendly energy package; ANWR in mix,” Fairbanks Daily News-Miner

Boris Nemtsov speaks in Canada. (c) Toronto Sun

Boris Nemtsov, co-president of the opposition People’s Freedom Party in Russia, has spoken out against Putin’s stance in the Arctic – in Canada. He is currently crossing the True North Strong and Free on a speaking tour organized by the Central and Eastern European Council. Nemtsov has been an outspoken critic of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and the fact that the PFP was denied registration to be listed on the ballots in the December 4 Duma elections made him an even more strident opponent. In an interview with Sun News Network, Nemtsov declared, “(Putin’s) main political idea and main trend is to be a fighter against the West.” He commented on the alleged rivalry between Canada and Russia in the Arctic, stating, “I think this is absolutely an artificial problem…This is like a problem, which is generated in the Kremlin to show that we protect Russian interests, not because they have, for example, the opportunity to produce oil and gas in the Arctic or something like that.”

The latest flare-up in the tension between Canada and Russia was the arrest of Canadian naval officer Jeffrey Delisle in Halifax, who unnamed sources have accused of sending information to Russia. Yet Canada and Russia may need to strengthen their cooperation if a new academic paper published in Ocean Development & International Law by Michael Byers, political science professor at UBC, and his graduate student, James Baker, is correct. I’m still trying to get my hands on the paper itself, but Postmedia News reports that in the paper’s exploration of various possible resolutions to the U.S. – Canada dispute over sovereignty in the Beaufort Sea, Canada and Russia could end up sharing a maritime boundary 1,000 kilometers northwest of the Yukon’s northern shoreline. Should there be oil this far north in the Beaufort Sea that cross the boundary, the two countries could potentially cooperate to extract the resources jointly, just as Russia and Norway are doing in the Barents Sea.

On the other side of the world, U.S. Ambassador to Norway Barry White attended the Conference on Indigenous Peoples, Environment and Business in Kirkenes, Norway last week. He stated, “It seems that too often the concept of “race to the Arctic” is bandied about, whether in popular press articles or a number of recently published books. While this makes for interesting reading, the United States government doesn’t believe that we are in the middle of a race to the Arctic.” That’s probably true on a number of levels. One, the U.S. tends to emphasize inclusion in the region, such as at the Arctic Council. Pursuing multilateral solutions to the Arctic makes it easier for the U.S. to sit back and not have to take the lead, especially since its military and diplomatic resources are stretched thinly over the planet. Believing that the Arctic is a zone of cooperation also lends greater support to keeping military investments in the region, such as icebreakers, low – even though there are a host of non-military reasons for why the U.S. should enhance its capabilities in the region.

U.S. Ambassador to Norway Barry White at Terningmoen. (c) Ostlendingen

On February 7, Ambassador White visited the Norwegian School of Winter Warfare in Terningmoen, east-central Norway. He was “fascinated” by the school, stating, “This gives our soldiers an excellent workout. We have winter conditions at home as well, but here, it’s better. It is not without reason that we have sent 500 soldiers here since 1947. There are very good training conditions here.”

He also mentioned that Norwegian soldiers train in the U.S., adding to the collaboration between the two countries’ militaries. White commented, “This type of exchange is valuable when soldiers work together on real projects.”

While both Nemtsov and White can agree that members of the Arctic should strive for cooperation, the Russian opposes the Kremlin’s actions in the Arctic, while White supports those of the White House.

News Links

“Her får soldatene våre topp trening,” Ostlendingen (in Norwegian)

Zhang and Harper meet in Ottawa on February 1. (c) Reuters

The Chinese Ambassador to Canada, H.E. Zhang Junsai, spoke at a luncheon at the Montreal Council on Foreign Relations today. The Montreal Gazette has an article on his talk, emphasizing the fact that he twice affirmed that China is committed to peace in the Arctic.

A member of the audience that the newspaper reported to be a “specialist in Arctic and northern security issues” asked Zhang about the region, and he responded, “We hope that this will be solved by peaceful means. I don’t know much about this but we would like to participate and be (an) observer. We hope that the countries (on the council) would support China’s request.”

CBC quoted Zhang: “My understanding, not of my government, is we should have a joint scientific research in this area because a lot of things are unknown.” Scientific research has been one area in which China has been able to contribute a lot, whether with its research expeditions on its icebreaker or its station on Ny-Alesund.

China seeks to gain permanent observer status on the Arctic Council, which Canada will begin chairing next year. There are a number of other countries on the Arctic Council, but all of them are European; none from the Far East have been admitted. Currently, Denmark supports China’s bid. This is not surprising given the recent increase in trade between the two countries and China’s high hopes for investing in Greenland’s minerals. Yet Norway dropped its support of Chinese observer status after Beijing cut off political and human rights dialogues with Oslo when the Nobel Committee awarded imprisoned Chinese activist Liu Xiaobo with the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2010. Beijing also took other retaliatory measures such as enforcing stricter controls on Norwegian salmon imports, causing their sales to fall dramatically. Though the Nobel Committee is made up of five members appointed by the Storting, Norway’s parliament, they are not beholden to it, so it is somewhat misguided for Beijing to take out its displeasure on Oslo.

This excerpt, taken from the Nobel Committee’s website, describes Alfred Nobel’s vision in setting up the committee and the prize.

“Nobel may also have feared that the highly political nature of the Peace Prize would make it a tool in power politics and thereby reduce its significance as an instrument for peace. A prize-committee selected by a rather progressive parliament from a small nation on the periphery of Europe, without its own foreign policy and with only a very distant past as autonomous military power, may perhaps have been expected to be more innocent in matters of power politics than would a committee from the most powerful of the Scandinavian countries, Sweden.”

The awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese activist has altered not just Chinese-Norwegian relations, but also Arctic relations. This is a world a century away from that of Nobel, indeed.

In the Guardian, Karsten Klepsvik, the senior Arctic official at the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was quoted as saying, “I can neither confirm nor deny this story, but I can say bilateral contacts between Norway and China are at a low level.” Norway’s decision to counteract China’s snubs by blocking it in the Arctic Council shows that it is upping the stakes in the dispute by moving the chess pieces north. The Arctic, and membership in the region’s most important multilateral body, are now important enough to be used as bargaining chips. If China doesn’t back down, it will need to shore up support with other countries, like Canada, instead. Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be visiting China next week, so the government will have another opportunity to convince the leader of the upcoming Arctic Council chair of its merit.

China has already invested millions in the Athabaska oil sands. It is also planning to invest in Quebec’s Plan Nord, the province’s strategy for developing its northern half. Last August, Quebec Premiere Jean Charest traveled to China and Japan to promote Asian investment in his province. On January 12, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., China’s third-largest steelmaker, successfully closed the deal to create a joint venture with Adriana Resources, a Canadian iron ore producer, to develop deposits in Lac Otelnuk, in Nunavik, Quebec. Jilin Jien Nickel also recently announced a CAN $400 million investment in a nickel mine near Kangiqsujuaq, Nunavik, and it has signed agreements with three Inuit communities to pay royalties. An in-depth article that examines “la grande séduction Québec-Asie,” or Quebec’s attempts to attract Chinese and Indian investment, is a great read from Cyberpresse (in French).

China needs resources, and it will get them from the Arctic. But it might not receive a helping hand from Norway anytime soon unless it changes tack.

Arctic Ambassador Klavs Holm

Earlier this month, Denmark appointed Klavs A. Holm as the new Arctic Ambassador, an office which will become permanent. At the same time, Danish Foreign Minister Villy Søvndal announced the closure of the embassies in Iraq, Benin, and Zambia. This move gives a strong signal that Denmark is putting forth a more visible diplomatic presence in the circumpolar north while refocusing its priorities in the Global South, where it will open embassies in Myanmar and Libya. Ambassador Holm will represent all three parts of the Danish Commonwealth: Denmark, Greenland, and the Faroe Islands. He will also coordinate the implementation of the government’s Arctic strategy, released last August.

Holm previously served as the Danish Ambassador in London, Paris, and Singapore. He also represented Denmark to the EU, in Brussels, where he worked on Arctic issues. The current ambassador for Public Diplomacy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will have his work cut out for him, as Foreign Minister Søvndal made clear when he visited Thule Air Force Base last December. When asked what assignments the new Arctic Ambassador would have, he responded, “If you ask for specific tasks, we can name climate change, which means that shipping in the Arctic is increasing in scope. There are very specific tasks to perform in relation to search and rescue in these remote areas. The area is large, and first and foremost, we must prepare the new agreements.” Specifically, he added, “It is clear that we need the Americans to not block civilian usage of Thule. Now, there will be a negotiation process to clarify how far we can go” (translated from the Danish). Search and rescue will thus be an important topic for Holm, as will mining and indigenous peoples – two issues which overlap heavily in Greenland. China has lately expressed strong interest in investing in Greenland’s mineral deposits, the Wall Street Journal reports, which might be cause for Holm to visit Beijing.

Denmark can now be added to the short list of countries which have Arctic ambassadors, which includes Sweden, Finland, and Russia. The United States and Canada are noticeably absent from this list, though there have been calls in the latter country to bring back the position (see here and here). Canada had an Arctic Ambassador from 1994 to 2006, but the role was abolished, as former Foreign Minister Peter McKay then stated, “We didn’t feel we were getting good value for money from that position.”

News Links

“New Danish Arctic Ambassador,” IPS

“Søvndal udnævner ambassadør for det aller nordligste,” Politiken (in Danish)

Arctic Fibre's Proposed Route through the Northwest Passage, from Nunatsiaq News. (c) Arctic Fibre.

The Toronto Star and Nunatsiaq News have more details on the proposed 15,600 kilometer Canadian cable, which would run between London and Tokyo via the Northwest Passage. Northern China and Japan and Northern Europe would then have a lower latency connection between them, which could be beneficial for financial centers in both continents. Promisingly, the cable could also bring faster internet service to Northern Canada, much of which currently relies on slow satellite-based connections operated primarily by Telesat. Doug Cunningham, president of Arctic Fibre, the company behind the plan, remarked that its aim “is to satisfy a social goal: to provide the necessary bandwidth to people in remote Arctic communities…Without it, the economic divide (between north and south) will only grow wider.” It is important to note, though, that in some places in northern Canada, like Nunavut, the satellite-based internet can actually be faster than the dial-up connections that some people in rural areas in southern Canada use, so the gap is more complicated than a straight north-south divide.

Fast internet is one of the keys to spurring growth in the Canadian North. Given the remote distances, telemedicine and online schooling are more popular and practical solutions than in other places. With faster internet speeds, such industries could take off even more. Arctic Fibre’s proposed cable would reach the settlements of Cambridge Bay, Gjoa Haven, Taloyoak, Igloolik, Hall Beach, Cape Dorset and Iqaluit. Many are skeptical, though, that such an investment would be profitable. Given the huge price tag and the small amount of people in the High North, it’s likely that the project would have to be heavily subsidized by the government.

Cunningham envisions that Canada would finance one third of the CAN $640 million project, while Asian, American and European telcoms would pay for the other two thirds. In Canada, he’s hoping to win support from the territorial government of Nunavut and the Canadian High Arctic Research Station, where he claims broadband internet could be a real boon. Cunningham remarked on the station, “If you’re sending them there, they need broadband to do their jobs properly. It’s something we take for granted here.” Of course, the scientists in Antarctica do not have broadband internet, nor do scientists working on icebreakers at sea. They all use satellite internet, so service provided at this level is presumably functional enough to let researchers do their jobs.

Polarnet Project's proposed fiber optic cable route.

Arctic Fibre will have to compete against a possible fiber optic cable through the Arctic passage to the east: the Northern Sea Route. Polarnet Project intends to lie down a fiber optics cable from London to Murmansk, Anadyr, Beijing, and Tokyo. Other parts of China, northern Russia, and Seoul would also be connected by this cable. The Russian Optical Trans Arctic Submarine Cable System (ROTACS) is already further along than the Canadian cable. In October 2011, the Russian Governmental Commission for Federal Communications and Information Technology approved the project, and last week, Polarnet Project announced a tender for supply of the cable. The company hopes to begin construction in the second half of this year, while Arctic Fibre wouldn’t get started until at least the third quarter of 2013. Polarnet Project’s website claims that ROTACS would only be 14,700 kilometers, though the Toronto Star reports that it would be a significantly longer 17,000 kilometers; I am not sure of the reason for the difference in measurement.

This is not the first time companies have sought to connect London and Tokyo via the Arctic. In January 2010, it was reported that Khanjee Holding, an infrastructure investment firm, and the Kodiak-Kenai Cable Company wanted to build a similar cable, whose main benefits would have served Alaska rather than Canada. The cable would have had its primary landing in Prudhoe Bay and connections to Dutch Harbor, Nome, Kotzebue, and Barrow. The companies were not successful in obtaining the $350 million in loans they sought from the U.S. government for the project, which ultimately was given a $1 billion price tag.

Now, though, Alaska is out of the picture. It seems that the competition is once again between the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage, though the action is taking place on the seafloor rather than at sea level.

SLt. Delisle: Spying on Canada's Arctic?

Royal Canadian Navy Intelligence Officer Jeffrey Delisle was arrested in Halifax last week for espionage. He is being charged under the Security of Information Act with “breach of trust and communicating safeguarded information to a foreign entity” between July 6, 2007 and January 13, 2012, the date on which he was arrested. This is the first time that someone is being prosecuted under Section 16 of the act, and Sub-Lieutenant Delisle faces life imprisonment.

Delisle has been working for the Canadian Forces as an officer for the Navy since 2008, and as a reservist since 1996. Most recently, beginning in August 2011, he started work at HMCS Trinity in Halifax, a naval communications center. Supposedly, many of Canada’s naval secrets are kept here, as information from the country’s monitoring stations comes through the center. According to the Canadian Navy, Trinity operates two remote radio transmitter/receiver stations near Halifax, called Naval Radio Station Newport Corner and Naval Radio Station Mill Cove. It also houses the Canadian Forces Integrated Underseas Surveillance System Centre, which operates two remote SOSUS arrays for the Integrated Underseas Surveillance System, in which it participates with the United States. SOSUS was designed during the Cold War as an early warning system against Soviet ballistic missile submarines. Now that submarines have grown stealthier, SOSUS technology has become outdated, so information gathered from the arrays is not terribly critical anymore.

Still, Delisle could have been privy to sensitive information during his short time at Trinity. In her book, “Deeply Canadian,” Julie Ferguson writes, “Trinity is part of a global network of fixed and mobile acoustic sensors whose data is shared among western allies.” Much information about the paths of Canadian military and civilian ships up, down, and across the country’s three coastlines, along with information about allied ship movement, passes through Trinity. Both the information about Canadian ships and, perhaps more importantly, its NATO allies, could be quite valuable to other governments. Trinity also maintains Ferguson also writes that Canada’s Maritime Forces Atlantic, which are headquartered in Halifax, “can already produce a real-time surveillance picture that extends halfway across the north Atlantic – an area of 1.4 million sq. km” (p.80).

Canada has neither confirmed nor denied the identity of the foreign body, but many suspect that it is Russia. In fact, the Nova Scotia-based Chronicle Herald asserts that it “has confirmed [that the foreign body] is one or more Russian envoy.” When asked whether Russia was the recipient of sensitive information, Defense Minister Peter McKay stated, “I don’t think you can assume anything…I’m not denying or confirming anything.”

What type of information could Russia get out of Delisle? Some say that since he was a low-ranking officer, he probably did not have access to extremely high-level, need-to-know intelligence while at Trinity. However, other sources tell the Globe and Mail that he enjoyed top-level clearance. Regardless of his stature, Russia might still have been able to bribe Delisle, who has a murky financial past, having declaring bankruptcy in 1998, to share intelligence on Canadian activity in the Arctic. There, the two countries dispute the territoriality of the Lomonosov Ridge (see this overview from Wired Magazine for a good introduction to the disagreement). Russia could also be interested in Canada’s underwater tracking technology. Lenta, a Russian newspaper, also states that Moscow could be interested in gathering more data from the Canadians on the Arctic because of the its “desire to win a showdown with Ottawa over natural resources in the Arctic.” Though any showdown will likely take place in the sluggish UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf rather than out in the field, knowing what claims Canada plans to submit to the UN in advance of its 2013 deadline would be highly advantageous for Russia.

Lenta warns readers to expect the resolution of the issue to be “difficult,” claiming that Ottawa might be preparing a response in the “form of notes of protest or expulsion of diplomats.” They don’t state a source, so this could be nothing but a far-fetched rumor for now. It is in Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s interests to keep relations with Russia on a good footing, especially since he’ll be traveling to Russky Island near Vladivostik for this year’s APEC summit in September. Of course, the UK was not afraid to expel four Russian diplomats after Moscow’s failure to extradite a man they accuse of murdering ex-KGB and ex-FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko, so perhaps Canada could do the same.

News Sources

“SpyFile: Everything we know about Halifax’s espionage case,” OpenFile

“Expert sees possible Arctic link in spy case,” Times Colonist

The Healy (L) breaks ice for the Renda (R). U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 3rd Class Jonathan Lally.

Updated Below

The isolation of Nome, Alaska has garnered the small city a certain degree of infamy. No roads lead to the city of 3,500 from the rest of the state. The only way in is by plane, ship, or dogsled, as was done in 1925 to bring emergency medical supplies to residents. Now, as mentioned before, the city is short of oil and diesel due to the failure of the Delta Marine barge to arrive as scheduled in mid-November. A massive storm stopped the ship from coming to port and ended up freezing the waters around the city. Diesel, used to heat homes, could run out by March, according to the New York Times. However, Sandra Medearis of the Nome Nugget reports, “Contrary to continued erroneous reports and rumors, the town’s two petroleum products distributors have enough heating fuel on hand for the winter, according to their managers.” Either way, a regular ship cannot come to Nome until June or July, and if the Russian ship Renda makes it to Nome, the New York Times says it would be “making the first maritime fuel delivery through sea ice in Alaska history.”

The icebreaker-that-could, USCGC Healy, is carving out a path in the Bering Sea  for the Renda, which is carrying 1,062,000 gallons of diesel and 300,000-400,000 gallons of gasoline. The Russian-flagged double-hulled, ice-class tanker picked up the gasoline in Dutch Harbor, Alaska, which necessitated a special waiver of the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, also known as the Jones Act. Passed in 1920 to protect the maritime industry, the act does not allow the transportation of goods between two points in the U.S. in a foreign-flagged ship.

The New York Times article offers a detailed overview and helpful map of the situation and the difficulties the icebreaker and the ship are facing. First, the Healy is not a heavy-duty icebreaker, so it has to slowly chug through all three hundred miles of the ice to the port of Nome. Progress has been halting, with Saturday seeing the ships only travel fifteen nautical miles. Some of the ice is at least a foot thick. Reconnaissance flights showed that some of the first-year ice the ships will soon be encountering is up to three feet thick. Rear Admiral Thomas Ostebo, commander of the Coast Guard’s Seventeeth District, said that the transit could perhaps have been facilitated by the use of a heavy-duty icebreaker, of which the U.S. has none that are operational.

If and when Healy arrives, it will not be able to come more than half a mile from shore. From there, the Renda will continue as close as it can to shore, but will probably not be able to reach the fuel headers due to its draught. On the Coast Guard Compass Blog, Lieutenant Connie Braesch reports, “From this point, there are a number of options being explored to get the fuel the remainder of the way including using a fuel hose from the barge to shore.”

First, though, the Healy and the Renda have to make it to Nome. As of Monday, the Renda was 150 miles away. Weather conditions are making it very difficult for the ships to sail, too. With Nome currently sitting at -15 degrees Fahrenheit, it’s probably colder offshore. The temperature in Nome has not gone above 0 degrees Fahrenheit since December 23. More snow is on the way, too. As the Healy cuts through the frozen sea, the tides are such that much of the ice closes in behind the ship, complicating the Renda’s journey. Furthermore, the Healy cannot travel at its highest potential speed, which Ostebo stated could be close to 10 knots through first-year ice. This is because Healy has to stay close enough to the slower-moving Renda to break ice for her. In the thicker ice that Healy may soon be encountering, it can travel at three knots.

Despite the challenging conditions, spirits seem to be high. Captain Peter Garay is an Alaska Marine pilot stationed onboard Renda. He blogged for the Alaska Dispatch,

“One hundred miles to go! We just crossed the mark. Renda and Healy have finally got it together. They seem to be progressing fairly well. [The] learning and understanding curves have been fabulous.

It’s probably the most awesome voyage I’ve had in my 40 years of going to sea.

Optimism is running high, everybody is working well together and Mother Nature is cooperating for a change. The first 100 miles we had to literally crawl-claw ourselves through.

Hope to see you in Nome. All the best to you, – Capt. Pete.”

Update: Wednesday, January 11

Renda and Healy came 62 miles closer to Nome on Sunday and Monday, but on Tuesday, thick ice actually pushed the two ships back a little bit. Right now, 97 miles away from Nome, they are waiting to hear what will be the safest route for them to chart towards the coast. Aeryon Scout drones have been flying ahead of them, using remote sensing technology to see where the ice will be easiest to break through. The Associated Press has the latest update on the progress of the two vessels, while the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner provides more insight into the work of the drones and the researchers studying their images. One researcher discovered a 25-foot thick ice pressure ridge at the entrance to the city’s harbor. The ice sticks five feet above the sea and extends twenty feet below, making it essentially impassable. However, Renda’s fuel hoses, which are a mile long, should still be able to reach the shore.

Update: Friday, January 13

Late Thursday afternoon, the two ships stopped just six miles offshore. This morning, they began sailing closer to the coast again. Renda could begin unloading fuel as early as Saturday, the Seattle Times reports. It’s a delicate process, as the ships have to be positioned such that they will be able to leave the waters off Nome once the fuel has been delivered, which could take up to 48 hours. In the frigid temperatures, ice will continue to form around the ships while they are sitting in place. Today, the mercury dropped to 34 degrees below Fahrenheit, setting a new daily record. Crewmembers will also have to make sure that the hoses have a clear path to follow across the ice to the shore, removing boulders and other ice debris that could get in the way. The hoses will also have to be checked every thirty hours. But soon, as Popular Mechanics wittily reports, the icebreaker and the tanker will be “almost Nome.”

Land ho! Photo taken from the bridge of the Healy on January 13. U.S. Coast Guard photo.

Update: Tuesday, January 17

Renda and Healy have reached Nome! Renda sits a half mile offshore while fuel is being unloaded through two 700-yard hoses. The process could take anywhere from 36 hours to five days. Residents of Nome can rest assured that they’ll soon have enough oil and gas to get through the cold, harsh winter they’re facing. The Anchorage Daily News has the full story, while MSNBC has pictures of the unloading.

Additional Sources

The Nome Nugget has a good story on the race to bring oil to Nome, including background on what it took to get the waiver approved.

The Coast Guard explains the “art and science” of icebreaking.

More high-resolution photos taken by Coast Guard officers are available here. Hourly photos taken from Healy’s bridge are available here.

A brief USCG video is visible here:

Who's afraid of the Russian bear?

In recent days, two op-eds on the Arctic have been published in North American newspapers. In the Canadian daily, the Toronto Star, Michael Byers, a professor at the University of British Columbia and an expert on the Arctic, penned a piece lamenting Northern Canada’s lack of development compared to Russia. Since he is currently a visiting professor at Novosibirsk University, located in south-central Russia near Kazakhstan, he has an on-the-ground view of Russian politics and the country’s development of its northern region. In his article, he focuses on Russia’s growing Arctic infrastructure, especially with regard to transportation links like the Northern Sea Route, the expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railway, and the possibility of building a tunnel under the Bering Strait to Alaska. In a lengthier op-ed he wrote for Al-Jazeera, he goes into more detail on Russia’s history of development in its Arctic region, concluding, “the Russian Bear still dominates the Arctic.” In both articles, he notes that the U.S. opposes that parts of the Northern Sea Route, north of Russia, and the Northwest Passage, within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, constitute internal waters. The U.S. instead prefers to guarantee the right of passage for its ships. For now, the U.S. has agreed to disagree with Canada and Russia.

In the Washington Post, Heather Conley, Senior Fellow and Director of CSIS’s Europe Program, wrote an op-ed entitled somewhat facetiously, “The colder war: U.S., Russia, and others are vying for control of Santa’s back yard.” She worries that the U.S. is running out of time to catch up to its Arctic neighbors in terms of capacity. The country needs to level the playing field, especially by investing in properly equipping its Coast Guard for Arctic operations, she suggests. She is right to worry about the lack of an operational heavy-duty American icebreaker, and the fact that we have to lease them from other countries. However, some of her references to other countries upping their game in the Arctic are perhaps overblown. For instance, she notes, “Even China has entered the Arctic race; it constructed the world’s largest non-nuclear icebreaker to conduct scientific research in the Arctic.” The race in the Arctic, if we want to call it as such, has more to do with extracting its resources. Building icebreakers for scientific research, while a notable accomplishment, will still not allow China to stake any material claim to the Arctic, so it is not a true player in the race for the resources. China and its entrepreneurs can, however, attempt to play a secondary role in the race for resources by doing things such as purchasing land or investing in development. Yet still, countries with actual sovereignty in the Arctic, such as Iceland, can thwart these attempts.

All three op-eds make use of cold war puns or imagery in their titles, which in way tends to promote the idea that there is a conflict in the Arctic. Let’s not forget that the Russian air force and NORAD recently cooperated in a joint counter air-terrorism exercise, Operation Vigilant Eagle, over the Bering Sea. And that all eight member states of the Arctic Council signed the historic Search and Rescue Agreement in May 2011.

Both Byers and Conley worry that their own countries are falling behind while others move ahead. I think one would be hard-pressed to find a similar op-ed from a Russian journalist criticizing the state of their country’s progress up north, even though the country has a gargantuan task ahead of it in upgrading its infrastructure, like all of the Arctic nations. But I will do my best.

Beluga whales at sea (note that this is not a photo of the trapped ones).

The Russian ship, the Rubin.

I received a large reader response to my post about the trapped Beluga whales on December 15. Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations sent the ship, the Rubin, to break up the ice in the Sinyavinsky Channel to free the 100 whales, but severe weather forced the ship to seek safe harbor, as RIA Novosti reports. The ship sailed to the port of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky in Kamchatka to refuel and will reportedly attempt to resume rescue activities once the weather improves. It’s probably a good idea to wait out the stormy weather in the North Pacific for the sake of the sailors. In the past couple of weeks, to the southwest, around the Sea of Okhotsk, two ships have fallen into distress. Right before Christmas, a Cambodian-flagged ship, the Ginga, sank in the La Perouse Strait just south of Sakhalin. Three people have died in this incident so far. Today, in the Kuril Islands, the Irina, a Russian refrigerator vessel homeported in Vladivostok, broke down with a flooded engine room and punctured hull. High winds and waves made rescue initially difficult, though all 19 sailors were eventually saved. Kolskaya, the oil rig that went down while being towed in December, also sank off Sakhalin, in this case off the island’s east coast.

Map of the Sea of Okhotsk, with Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, and Kamchatka.

In Russia, a different story about the Beluga whales has captured the headlines, which has not yet been reported in Western outlets, at least to my knowledge. Apparently, hunters in Chukotka have only found 12 beluga whales in the channel, rather than the 100 originally reported. Lubomir Mukha, the head of EMERCOM in Chukotka, stated,

“Numbers of marine mammal hunters and members of the nature-ethnic park, Beringia, say that now in the ice, there are no more than 12 animals in captivity. Only one polynya remains open, whereas previously there were at least five.”

If the hunters are right, that means that up to 88 Beluga whales may have already escaped. This is good news, as the channel is continuing to freeze up. For the 12 whales that remain, there is also good news: scientists at the Chukotka Fishery Research Center think that there is enough food in the channel to sustain the pod of whales until January.

News Links

“Update: Sad News for Trapped Beluga Whales,” Care2

“White whale rescue operation suspended,” UPI

Fire on the Yekaterinburg. (C) Ru-RTR

Just a couple of weeks ago, a Russian oil rig sank off the coast of Sakhalin Island, leaving at least 17 dead and 36 more missing. Only 14 people survived, and the search has been called off to ensure the safety of the rescuers in harsh conditions. Now, in the Arctic shipyard in the village of Roslyakovo, Murmansk in northwest Russia, the Yekaterinburg, a nuclear submarine, has caught on fire while undergoing repairs. Welding that was occurring on the wooden scaffolds surrounding the vessel reportedly caused the fire, which started at 4:20 pm GMT. Eventually, the flames spread to the submarine. Villages in Roslyakovo, rather than the Navy, noticed the fire and reported it to Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations. A video of the fire is available here, courtesy of RIA Novosti.

Helicopters were on-site trying to put out the fire. Six hours later, at 10:35 pm, the submarine was submerged to try to stop the blaze for good. Minister of Emergency Situations Sergey Shoygu said that the fire had been mostly contained at 1:40 am, but that firefighters were still combatting small pockets of flames.

Nineteen crew members have been injured so far, either from burns or smoke inhalation, though the Russian authorities claim that no one was hurt. They also will not disclose how many crew members were onboard the submarine at the time of the fire. They have claimed that neither nuclear weapons nor the nuclear reactor were on the ship, as the sixteen ballistic missiles, along with torpedo tubes, had been removed prior to repairs. If this is true, the fire should not be radioactive. Since the fire reportedly only broke out on the submarine’s outer hull, there also should not be any major radiation risk, since the nuclear weapons and reactor would be farther inside. The Yekaterinburg normally carries R-29RMU Sineva intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin sent Acting Head of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov to Murmansk. Meanwhile, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation has launched an inquiry into the fire, entitled, “Damage to property due to negligence of the military.”

It is hard to believe Russian authorities and federal investigations after the last few maritime disasters, notably the sinking of the nuclear submarine, the Kursk, in 2000. On top of that, and on top of the recent sinking of the Kolskaya oil rig, a Russian nuclear icebreaker, the Vaygach, caught on fire earlier in December, killing two. Again, there was reportedly no radiation released, since the fire occurred in the ship’s living quarters, far from the reactor. Still, in order for foreign investors to feel secure about investing in Russia’s maritime industries, whether they be icebreakers or offshore oil rigs, there needs to be more transparency. Russia also probably needs to enforce tighter regulations and upgrade its infrastructure. After all, you don’t hear about similar disasters in countries like Norway or Canada nearly as often. This blog post from the Voice of America’s Russia Watch on the sinking of the Kolskaya is highly informative and offers great insight into what happened, why, and the culture of negligence that persists in Russia from the top down.

News Links

“Massive fire engulfs Russian nuclear submarine at Arctic repair dock; possibly 19 injured, and links remain uncertain,” Bellona

The Kolskaya oil rig.

The Russian oil rig Kolskaya sunk 200 miles off the east coast of Sakhalin late Saturday night in stormy weather with 67 crewmembers were on board. So far, four people have been found dead and 14 people rescued, while 49 people still remain lost. The Kolskaya sunk in twenty minutes in fifteen-foot, 32 degree seas. In Moscow, President Dmitry Medvedev called for all necessary help to be directed towards the rescue efforts. The Neftegaz-55, which had been towing the Kolskaya to the port of Kholmsk, in western Sakhalin, and the icebreaker Magadan were at the scene assisting with the rescue efforts. The SMIT Sakhalin (an icebreaker of class 1A Super) and the Atlas rescue ship were on their way to the site of the sinking, too. Two helicopters searched for people on Sunday, but had to return to Sakhalin until Monday morning due to nightfall and continuing adverse weather conditions.

This graphic from RIA Novosti shows the location of the sinking, some statistics about the rescue efforts, and a diagram of the rig.

33 of the crewmembers hailed from Murmansk. Counselors from the city, in Russia’s western Arctic, have flown to Sakhalin to assist those affected by the sinking. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations (EMERCOM) has established a hotline for people to call for information regarding the disaster or for psychological counseling. This time, the authorities seem to be enacting a swifter response than in the past, when it clumsily and belatedly responded to disasters such as the sinking of the icebreaker Kursk in 2000.

The Kolskaya was a jack-up rig that stood on three legs to drill for oil. Built in Finland, the rig was 26 years old. The Arktikmor Neftegaz Razvedka (AMNGR) company owned the rig, which was performing exploration work for Gazflot, a subsidiary of Gazprom. A spokesperson for AMNGR stated, “There is no ecological danger. The vessel was carrying the minimum amount of fuel as it was being tugged by two craft.” The head of EMERCOM Sakhalin, Taimuraz Kasaev, echoed this statement, saying, “Stocks of fuel on board PB” Kola were minimal. They are in sealed tanks, so there is no threat of a spill.”

The Sakhalin is a hotbed of offshore exploration activity, with Gazprom, ExxonMobil, and Shell all involved. While the sinking is a tragedy for those lost onboard, it could have been much worse for the environment. Incidents such as the sinking of this rig should prompt more oversight of offshore drilling activities, whether in Russia or anywhere else in the Arctic. The same goes for shipping, whether of oil or other cargo, as it was only days ago that the Korean cargo ship Oriental Angel ran aground in similar conditions off Chukotka, to the northeast of Sakhalin.

Russia’s maritime infrastructure could also use an upgrade. Near Antarctica, the Russian fishing ship Sparta has run into trouble, as its hull became damaged when it hit a submerged iceberg. The Korean icebreaker Araon, which is currently seven days away from the Sparta, in Christchurch, had been about to embark on an Antarctic research mission. However, it will now sail towards the trapped ship to try to rescue it – a reversal of the situation on the opposite end of the earth.

News Links

“Russian drilling rig sinks off Sakhalin, 49 missing,” Chicago Tribune

“Crew face long, cold wait for rescue,” New Zealand Herald

Belugas trapped in Northern Canada.

Off the east coast of Chukotka’s peninsula, winter has come hard and fast, freezing parts of the Bering Strait. Fifteen miles south of the village of Yanrakynnot in the Sinyavinsky Strait, 100 beluga whales are trapped in the ice. Hunters have reported that they are in two polynyas and are currently able to breathe freely. However, food and clean water will soon run out, and the whales will likely die of exhaustion or starvation if the ice is not soon broken up.

Roman Kopin, governor of Chukotka, has written letters to the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Emergency Situations requesting an icebreaker to aid the beluga whales. He suggested the marine rescue boat Ruby as a possible source of salvation for the whales. It is a couple of days away, busy helping a Korean cargo ship Oriental Angel, which has run aground on the Gulf of Anadyr. All of its 90 crew members managed to escape on inflatable boats, but there are still 1,100 gallons of flammable liquid onboard the ship. Meanwhile, Chukotka authorities are busy trying to find out how far away the nearest source of clean water is from the whales.

Yanrakynnot, marked by a red "X."

Beluga whales, which are not endangered, occasionally become trapped within the ice, but it is rare that humans discover the incidents in time to help save the animals. The reasons for why they become trapped range from sudden severe weather to disorientation. In 1986, an icebreaker off Chukotka rescued dozens of trapped belugas. Yet in 2006, when somewhere between 20 and 80 belugas were trapped within the frozen Husky Lakes south of Tuktoyaktuk, the local Inuvialuit decided to hunt them. Though they normally swim out of the lakes and back to the ocean before the freeze-up, a storm had suddenly frozen the waterway. The length and depth of the lakes, which form a 25-mile chain up to 100 feet deep in parts, made rescue impossible. The belugas only had one breathing hole, around which the Inuvialuit stood to harpoon the whales and pull out their bodies. Since the belugas likely would have died anyway, it was decided that it would be more humane to kill them quickly – a “mercy kill” – and make use of their meat, which can sustain Inuvialuit families through the winter. The local government paid hunters $79,000 to kill 39 of the trapped whales.

The following year, 80 beluga whales were similarly entrapped in the same place. However, the government decided to neither try to rescue them nor kill them, instead trying to see what effect it would have on beluga whales the following year. Paul Voudrach, chairman of the Tuktoyaktuk hunters and trappers committee, said, ”When they die in the Husky Lakes… these other whales will maybe not come back to the area, because death is in the area.”

What happens in Chukotka will depend on how far away the nearest source of open water is and how quickly the Ruby can get to the site of the trapped whales. In any case, the entrapment of the belugas and the grounding of the Oriental Angel show how dangerous the Arctic can be for animals and humans alike.

News Links

“Belugas trapped in icy Arctic waters at risk of death,” CNN

“Operation resumes to rescue South Korean trawler in Chukotka,” Voice of Russia

“Hunters harvest whales trapped in ice,” MSNBC

“No intervention on trapped Belugas in Husky Lakes,” CBC

USCGC Healy, America's only active icebreaker, alone at sea.

The Congressional Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation, part of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, held a hearing on Thursday, December 1 on U.S. Coast Guard operations in the Arctic. The chief topic of concern was icebreakers. As I reported back in February, the U.S. will be without heavy icebreakers for at least two years.

The USCG’s District Seventeen covers all of Alaska. It is divided into two sectors, Juneau and Anchorage. The USCG has an air station in Kodiak and Sitka, both in southern Alaska, where operations are concentrated. The USCG helps to safeguard the numerous fishermen in the seas, perform search and rescue operations, and protect sensitive maritime areas like sea lion rookeries. This year, they will also be carrying out an operation in anticipation of eventual drilling in the Chukchi Sea so that they can be better prepared. The USCG, however, does not have any permanent bases, communications infrastructure, or other facilities necessary to allow for extended operations in the Arctic.

The U.S. currently only has one operational icebreaker, a medium icebreaker called the USCGC Healy. Though it can cut through ice up to 4.5 feet thick at three knots, it cannot carry out unassisted polar icebreaker operations. Healy is scheduled to be in service until 2030.

The two heavy icebreakers that are currently sidelined, the Polar Star and Polar Sea, can break through six feet of ice at three knots. They constitute the “world’s most powerful non-nuclear-powered icebreakers.” This does not mean much in a world where Russia has several nuclear-powered icebreakers that can cut through Arctic ice, often six to nine feet thick in the central part of the ocean, at three knots. China is also building a new icebreaker to launch in 2014, which will have a displacement of 8,000 tons (half the size of Healy). This will be the country’s second icebreaker, as it purchased the Xue Long from the Ukraine in 1993. The Xue Long, though massive at 21,250 tons, is not especially powerful, as it can cut through a little under four feet of ice at two knots.

The Polar Star and Polar Sea’s main missions include supporting National Science Foundation research in Antarctica. However, they have not assisted in a mission to Antarctica since 2007. Since then, the NSF has paid $8 million annually to Russia and Sweden for use of their icebreakers. This situation draws a parallel to the country’s lack of space shuttles, which has caused it to rely on Russian Soyuz rockets to reach the International Space Station. This year, the U.S. was counting on Sweden’s icebreaker Oden for its annual Antarctic breakout, but Stockholm decided that it needed to keep the ship at home to patrol sea lanes. Without any active icebreakers, not only does the U.S. have to rely on a tight global supply. Coast Guard members’ skills at operating icebreakers grow rustier as they lose at-sea time and hands-on training, too.

Congress decommissioned the Polar Sea in October 2011, and equipment is being transferred from the ship to the Polar Star to assist in its reactivation. The Polar Sea was rehabilitated in 2006, but four years later, it experienced catastrophic engine problems. To fix the Polar Star, Congress has appropriated $60 million. Yet it is uncertain how much longer she will last even after the repairs are completed in Seattle in December 2012. The ship may have only another seven to ten years in her, which could leave the U.S. without any operational heavy icebreaker yet again in less than a decade. But another complicating factor is HR 2838, the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Act of 2011, which the House has passed. This bill would decommission the Polar Star within three years.

As Representative Rick Larsen (D-Washington) noted, ”I may not know the precise definition of the word, “irony”, but scheduling a hearing to discuss Coast Guard capabilities in the Arctic less than three weeks after the House passed legislation that would decommission the Coast Guard’s two heavy icebreakers, sure seems ironic to me.”

The White House also issued a formal statement opposing HR 2838, as the bill would “effectively reduce the vessel’s service life to two years and create a significant gap in the Nation’s icebreaking capacity.”

During his testimony before the subcommittee, Coast Guard Admiral Robert J. Papp also expressed his concern about taking the Polar Star out of service. Interestingly, though, he also noted that the National Security Cutter Program is essential to the USCG’s role in the Last Frontier. Papp stated, ”The National Security Cutter is more important to me to carrying out Coast Guard missions in Alaska – but we still need new icebreakers as well. In sum, it is my judgment and advice to you that Polar Star must be kept as part of the heavy icebreaker bridging strategy for the next five to ten years, and that the NSC shipbuilding program momentum must be maintained.” National Security Cutters are a class of ship that , and this summer, the first NSC carried out a patrol in Alaska. The Coast Guard Cutter Bertholf took part in Operation Northern Edge, demonstrating that cutters can be useful in northern waters.

The fiscal year 2012 budget would allow for one heavy icebreaker and one medium icebreaker, which the Department of Homeland Security says “will allow the Coast Guard to meet operational requirements.” Yet the USCG’s High Latitude Region Mission Analysis Report, submitted to Congress in July 2011, states that the services needs four heavy icebreakers and two medium ones to fulfill both its statutory missions and the Naval Operations Concept 2010 (NOC-2010). In a small footnote (#30), the concept states, “The current Icebreaker demand requires a 1.0 presence in the Arctic and 1.0 in the Antarctic.”

The researchers behind the behind High Latitude report designed the “Cutter Capacity Demand Tool,” a mathematical model that determines the number of icebreakers required. The researchers came up with the following findings:

1. USCG needs three heavy and three medium icebreakers to meet its statutory missions.
2. USCG needs six heavy and four medium to meet both its statutory missions and the “continuous presence requirements” of NOC-10.
3. A compromise solution requiring only four heavy icebreakers and two medium ones could be found by having multiple crews on all icebreakers, with two homeported in the Southern Hemisophere instead of Seattle, where the icebreakers are normally based.

(c) United States Coast Guard High Latitude Region Mission Analysis Capstone Summary, ABS Consulting

In the Arctic, the Coast Guard’s icebreaker deficit could affect four out of the eleven missions it has: Defense Readiness, Ice Operations, Marine Environmental Protection, and Ports, Waterways, and Coastal Security.

Jokulsarlon, Iceland. (c) Mia Bennett

Summary of the Past Year

This year, the Arctic has witnessed a lot more cooperation and a lot less conflict. Whereas past years were marked by sovereignty squabbles, boundary disputes, and accusations of airspace intrusions, this year, events took a more peaceful turn. First of all, members of the Arctic council signed the Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic in May. Five months later, the first SAR exercise took place in Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada, with over 80 delegates and attendees. The agreement is actually beginning to be implemented, making it a true success story for the Council.

Executives from South Korea and policymakers from the Northwest Territories discussed the possibility of working together so that the former could purchase gas from the latter. The Norwegian and Russian legislatures ratified the agreement made last year delineating the maritime boundary between the two countries in the Barents Sea. This, in turn, opens up the waters to joint oil and gas exploration, which could see technology transfer from Norway to Russia, spurring the development of their offshore resources.

Russia, Canada, and the U.S. also carried out the second ever Vigilant Eagle exercise, a joint affair between the three countries testing their abilities to respond to a terrorist hijacking over the Bering Sea. In 2010, when the exercise was first performed, it was the first live-fly exercise between Russia and the U.S. since World War II, and the first ever between NORAD and Russia. Pushing the “reset” button in Russian-American relations may not yet have been fully successful, but it has worked to some degree in the Arctic. Encouragingly, Canadian and Russian tensions dissolved this year. Relations reached a high point when Canada’s Chief of Defence met with his counterpart in Moscow. More high-level visits also took place, with Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg paying a visit to President Barack Obama in Washington D.C. Though their conversation mostly concerned non-Arctic affairs, they did touch briefly upon the circumpolar north.

Most Unexpected Event

While it was not surprising that more parties than ever were interested in the Arctic, it was surprising where the interest originated. Billionaire Chinese investor Huang Nubo attempted to purchase a large tract of land in northeastern Iceland to develop an ecoutourism resort, but was rebuffed. Facebook and other technology companies like Google set up server farms in the cold northern regions of the Nordic countries. And most recently, UK Member of Parliament Angus Robertson of the Scottish National Party wrote an editorial in the Scotsman calling on Scotland to make a stand in the Arctic and rekindle ties with its northern neighbors like Norway. Robertson represents Moray, a council area on the southern coast of the Moray Firth, an inlet of the North Sea. Moray is actually not that much farther south than southernmost Norway, so perhaps Robertson has a point that the UK, or Scotland at the very least, could be more involved in the Arctic. Finally, the top brass of South Korea’s Korean Gas Company made a trip to Inuvik and Tuktoyaktuk in the Northwest Territories to investigate the possibility of building an LNG terminal. As a country with a large population that is short on natural gas, South Korea dearly needs new suppliers. Likewise, the Northwest Territories can always use more investments in their wealth of natural resources, so the partnership could be a natural one despite the vast distance of the Pacific Ocean separating the two places. While Iceland rejected a Chinese businessman’s attempts to buy property in their country, the issue of investing in natural resources is generally less controversial. Land and territory are sensitive subjects, particularly in the Arctic, where Canada and Denmark are still haggling over Hans Island. Yet Kogas purchased a 20 percent share in a Mackenzie Delta gas field, which Canada permitted. Yet had the company attempted to buy a large amount of land, that might not have been permitted.

Person or Group of People of the Year

The Arctic Council is this year’s group of people for its members’ accomplishment in signing the first-ever agreement under the council’s auspices. The Search and Rescue Agreement, signed by all eight member states of the Arctic Council in Nuuk, Greenland this past May, will coordinate countries’ efforts to aid ships, planes, and other vessels in distress. More work still needs to be done in harmonizing cooperation between all of the countries, but the agreement is a major milestone in the 15 year history of the Arctic Council. As I mentioned before, the first ever SAR exercises took place in October, demonstrating that the eight countries are serious about SAR.

The Arctic Council also grew in the eyes of foreign ministers in all of the Arctic countries this year, especially in the United States. For the first time ever, an American Secretary of State attended the ministerial meeting. Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar also attended, highlighting the importance of the meeting and esteem of the council in Washington’s eyes.

Forecast for 2012

Next year, even more of the Arctic sea ice will likely be gone in the summer of 2012. This does not bode well for the future of polar bears, subsistence lifestyles, and the environment in general in the Arctic. However, for the shipping industry, it’s good news. In 2012, we can expect more shipping activity in the Arctic, especially along the Northern Sea Route, which Russia is working hard to develop.

The Nordic countries will focus more on social development in the Arctic, using a “People first” approach. The Nordic Council of Ministers’ Arctic Co-operation Programme for 2012-2014 will begin next year, with a yearly budget of six to eight million DKK (approximately $1.08 – $1.45 million). The program’s aim is to promote sustainable development in northern communities in the face of climate change and globalization.

In Canada, work on the High Arctic Research Station will move forward. The facility is scheduled to open in 2014. We can expect its Northern Strategy in the Arctic to remain constant, especially since Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be settling into his sixth year in office. More investment could pour into the country from other Arctic nations, too. For instance, the Danish Ambassador to Canada, Erik Vilstrup Lorenzen, will give a presentation in Aalborg, Denmark in January 2012 about opportunities for Danish companies in Canada’s Arctic.

Russia will also likely have a stable policy in the Arctic, though with Vladimir Putin inevitably returning to office, it is possible that they Kremlin could take a harder line. However, Putin has mentioned his desire to clean up Russia’s Arctic several times this past year, so perhaps the environment could become slightly healthier next year. Russia is also continuing to build ties with other countries in the Arctic. Just yesterday, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his Icelandic counterpart, Ossur Skarphedinsson, to discuss the region.

In the United States, one thing we can be sure of is that the country will not be ratifying UNCLOS anytime soon. Other than that, we can expect more of the same: a low-key policy in the Arctic with representatives from Alaska continuing to harp on the federal government to become more involved up north, and to drill. A decision might be made on whether to open ANWR to drilling, too.

The outlying countries and organizations, like China, South Korea, Japan, and the E.U., will press on with their interests in the Arctic. The next Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting will not take place until 2013, so they will not have a chance to re-apply for admission as a permanent observer. However, they will be able to continue engaging in the Arctic, generally through commercial and scientific enterprises.

Finally, the International Polar Year Conference, “From Knowledge to Action,” will take place in Montreal in April 2012. It will conclude the International Polar Year, which actually took place over two years from March 2007 – March 2009. It will be one of the largest polar conferences in history, with 3,000 scientists, researchers, and policymakers expected to attend. The public is allowed to register as well. Hopefully, I’ll be able to report from the conference!

Huang Nubo giving a presentation on Iceland. (c) Getty

Iceland’s Minister of the Interior, Ögmundur Jónasson, rejected Chinese businessman Huang Nubo’s bid to purchase a large tract of territory in the northeastern region of the country. Huang had sought an exemption from an Icelandic law which prohibits nationals from outside the European Economic Association from purchasing large amounts of land. Huang wanted to purchase and develop a 115 square mile parcel of land in Grímsstaðir á Fjöllum, which would have equalled 0.3% of the country’s territory. He had planned to spend $200 million acquiring the land and turning it into an ecoresort, an investment that could have been beneficial to Iceland’s economy as it recovers from the financial crisis.

Ögmundur Jónasson: "Not so fast…"

Minister Jónasson reasoned that allowing the exemption would have rendered the law meaningless. If Huang had been allowed to buy the land, more individuals and companies might have been encouraged to buy up large portions of Iceland. Furthermore, he defended his decision by emphasizing that it was a company owned by Huang, Zhongkun Investment Group, rather than Huang himself, that sought to purchase the land.

The minister’s rejection of Huang’s bid did not sit well with all parties in Iceland. IceNews reported that Sigmundur Ernir Rúnarsson, a Social Democratic Member of Parliament, called the rejection “crazy,” “deplorable,” and “devastating.” He opined, “I find this a crazy decision by the minister who, in his intransigence, is probably unfit to take this decision in light of the declarations he has made on the case in the lead up to the decision. Quite apart from that, there are at least 25 precedents for cases of this kind. This is a deplorable message to the people outside the capital region where there is a need to distribute the tourism industry better across the country and better across all times of year — and this is a devastating message to send out into the world to investors who are eyeing the country.”

Social Democrats were more in favor of allowing the purchase to go forward, while Left Greens, the party of Jónasson, were against it. The Left Green Movement is more liberal than the Social Democrats and is also against EU membership. (By the way, if you’re interested in seeing what an Icelandic MP’s website looks like, check out Rúnarsson’s page here: http://www.sigmundurernir.is/. It’s quite similar to your American politician’s standard website, with information about his policies, upbringing, and family.)

John Haukur Hauksson, a landowner in Grímsstaðir á Fjöllum who was trying to sell his land to Huang, said, ”I am not satisfied with the way this matter was done. This administration is unbelievable.”

The rejection of a Chinese attempt to purchase a sizable portion of Icelandic territory demonstrates that Iceland values its territorial sovereignty. More importantly, the Left Greens do not trust Chinese investors to acquire their land. They do not see China as a completely harmless partner in Iceland’s development. This episode could bode ill for future plans for cooperation between the two countries in the Arctic.

In an interview with China Daily, Huang made his displeasure with the decision clear. “The denial reflects the unjust and parochial investment environment facing private Chinese enterprises abroad,” he criticized. Huang will no longer pursue any investments in Iceland and does not plan to challenge the government’s decision. Instead, he intends to take his investment plans to Finland, Sweden, and the U.S., where he hopes to find a friendlier environment for foreign investors. Huang told YLE, a Finnish newspaper, ”If I make the decision to invest, I want to buy the land as well…After my experience in Iceland, a few hectares would be enough. But if the investment climate in Finland is as hostile as it is in Iceland, I will give up on the idea.”

It would be ironic if Finland does not allow Huang to purchase land, given that its government was upset last year over a Russian decision to ban foreigners from owning land within Russia along the 1,250 kilometer Finnish border.

News Links

 ”Chinese investor’s Iceland resort construction bid rejected by minister,” IceNews