Summary:
2008 was a dramatic year for U.S. relations with the rest of the world. It was a year in which our presidential election attracted the attention of millions of people all over the world, inspiring them like no other election in recent memory and motivating them to follow all the twists and turns of our long electoral season as if it were a transnational reality show. The desire for change resonated far beyond our shores, manifesting a global desire for the U.S. to once again be a beacon of hope for the world. In several blog posts dealing with the election I noted the various foreign policy positions of the candidates and sought to clearly define their stands on the issues.
This was also the year in which the U.S. began to extricate itself from Iraq, successfully negotiating a Status of Forces Agreement with the Iraqi government that envisions the withdrawal of all U.S. forces by the end of 2011. In looking over my posts dealing with Iraq I’m struck by how few there are. Is it because I did not consider Iraq to be important? No, not at all, I think it's a tribute to how well the post-surge security environment has removed Iraq from the forefront of public debate. We can only hope that the security gains will be consolidated and not lost in the transition.
The U.S. also made measured progress on dealing with nuclear proliferation issues, bringing India into a formal arrangement that may or may not be as good as the NPT (time will tell), edged toward directly talking to Iran (still in the NPT ) and kept Iran talking to the UN about compliance and inspection issues, and maintaining a diplomatic dance with North Korea that seems as precarious as ever. U.S. collaboration with allies in dealing with Iran and North Korea is one of the highlights of U.S. diplomatic efforts this year.
The U.S. turned serious attention to the perpetual problem of Mideast peace this year, with President Bush hosting an international conference in Annapolis that everyone seems to hope has provided an irreversible framework for future peace agreements. Most commentators seem to think it was too little too late.
I would conclude this brief summary with a word about the financial crisis, but FPA has helpfully suggested that as the next topic. Moving on…
Impact of Global Recession:
I mentioned hope earlier and in this case the U.S. exported uncertainty and fear born of a financial crisis caused by the implosion of the U.S. mortgage market. In years past the U.S. was lauded as the economic engine of global prosperity and this year that engine stalled. My posts dealing with this subject examined how the financial crisis will constrain U.S. leadership. Though the size of the U.S. economy guarantees our economic influence it's yet to be seen how our stature in the G7, IMF and World Bank will change as our allies and economic partners reassess U.S. stewardship of the global economy.
Which event deserved more attention than it received?
As the the world witnesses the slow disintegration of Zimbabwe and marvels at the sight of high seas pirates in the 21st Century we are reminded that events in Africa can have global repercussions. This year the U.S. created a new military command in Africa and sought to reassure the countries on the continent that this did not portend new American interventions while signaling an awareness of the geostrategic importance of Africa. When I lived in Ethiopia in the 1970s the U.S. role was defined by the Cold War rivalry with the Soviet Union. Now, the new Africa command will deal with interdiction, counterterrorism, and possibly a support role as new pan-African institutions seek their own solutions to the development and humanitarian crises that plague the continent.
A commonly held misconception about the U.S. role in the world:
The U.S. did not invade any new countries or start any new wars in 2008.
Forecast for 2009
As we move forward into the new year our initial hopes and expectations about the changing U.S. role in the world will be defined by the inauguration of a new president. President-Elect Obama has said that he wants to change perceptions about the U.S. and we will be closely watching to see if his administration will adopt a more consensual and multilateral foreign policy. He has enormous international goodwill going for him and he will be pressed to spend that capital quickly. Early tests to watch for will be his ability to maintain and strengthen the NATO commitment to Afghanistan, bolster European support for missile defense plans, and maintain a united front by the Security Council in dealing with Iran. Beyond specific issues the true test will be to see if at the end of 2009 the view of the U.S. role in the world has been transformed from one of fear and uncertainty to one of hope and stability. I think the world still very much wants the U.S. to lead, they just want to be confident of the direction in which we are leading them.