Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak travelled to Paris this week for discussions with European leaders to improve regional cooperation, however some reports indicate that the trip was a guise for surgery. Reportedly, the procedure is likely far more serious than Egyptian media accounts that claim Mubarak had back surgery. Moreover, many medical procedures performed on geriatric patients, of which Mubarak is one, could result in serious complications.
Even though analysts often describe the peace between Israel and Egypt as ‘cold’, the two nations recently entered a phase of improved relations. Egypt began cracking down on weapons smuggling into the Gaza Strip and embarked on a manhunt to catch Hezbollah terrorists in the Sinai Peninsula. Egypt refrained from objecting to an Israeli air-strike on a weapons convey emanating from the Sudan. Further, Mubarak himself remains actively engaged in attempting to negotiate the release of IDF soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas while also hosting reconciliation talks between rival Palestinian factions.
The weakening of Mubarak, or even his death, could result in substantial changes to the relationship between Israel and Egypt. Relations between the two nations changed dramatically from Nasser to Sadat and through the current regime. Mubarak’s successor, billed likely as Intelligence Chief Omar Suleiman, could fall into this same paradigm of unknown alterations in cooperation between Israel and Egypt.
However, a coup from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt would represent a much larger problem for Israel. The group has gained considerable domestic support over the last decade and advocates Islamization of Egyptian culture. Moreover, Hamas represents the Palestinian wing of the Brotherhood and therefore would obtain substantial backing from an Egyptian government led by the radical group. Any negotiations involving Hamas would likely shift dramatically to support the terror group’s position. Moreover, Egyptian security would likely reduce its anti-smuggling operations that would increase Hamas terror capabilities in the Gaza Strip.
Even though relations between Israel and Egypt could still improve, the two nations recently cooperated on some critical initiatives. Any change in leadership, particulalry to a radical Islamic organization, could significantly hinder any progress.
