The first tidal wave
. . . millions of people have chosen to suffer the costs of relocation from Central Asia, even though no one has really wanted them to leave. The demographic changes occurring from this relaocation will make the transition to independence more difficult for Central Asian states, as well as change the nature of the societies evolving there.
These are the statistics cited by Olcott (1996), who also said it was difficult to get good numbers in such reactive conditions:
In Uzbekistan, 17% of ethnic Russians left between 1989 and 1996.
In Kyrgyzstan, 20% left, although many returned in 1995-1996, in Olcott's estimation, based upon policies designed to attract them to return.
In Tajikistan, Russian ethnic population decreased by 41%.
Two items that might not be true now, but were in the 1990's:
Little new data
Professor Olcott's poll results are over ten years old. 1995 is also the last year for which we have census figures of this sort for Central Asian republics, which means that the ethnic and religious information one can find on the region is also inaccurate. Therefore, looking at CIA statistics or State Department Country Reports (that use the CIA statistics) gives an outdated picture. When reading about the ethnic or religious composition of the region, one must substantially discount any Russian population in most of these states. And yet, one must not discount their presence altogether.
There have been enough demographic upheavals since 1995 to warrant gathering new information. However, we can only guess or estimate these demographic flows based upon isolated news reports. One thing is certain: migration activity is a constant pressure within Central Asia, and its streams and eddies mark opportunities and challenges for Central Asia's governments.
The bulk of migration in Central Asia now is economic migration largely unrelated to ethnicity and violence. I will feature some issues of economic migration in a subsequent post.
References:
Check out the FPA Migration blog by Rich Basas and Cathryn Cluver, about the importance of good population statistics
See this blog's “Worth Reading Page” for Martha Brill Olcott's pioneering article
International Organization of Migration's country pages, accessible from Central Asia portal page:
Robert Greenall for BBC (2005, November 23) on Central Asia's ethnic Russians with estimated population data
Photos: OrganizingLA.blog; GardenVisit.com; WUMag.Kiev; OSCE