SCO: 2007 Military exercises start today

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization begins its military exercises today, August 9, in the Xinjiang region.  “Peace Mission 2007” (love the name) will end in Chelyabinsk, Russia on August 17th.  Over 6500 military personnel will participate; according to Mr. Pannier over at RFE/RL, the bulk of the troops will be from China or Russia.  Uzbekistan is sending observers only; Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are sending only small numbers of troops to participate.

As usual, many observers from non-SCO states look upon these exercises with some disfavor.  Certainly for counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency, it looks as if the exercises will be rather grand.  In the past, some SCO exercises have looked more like “major theatre” war rather than COIN ops.  There has been thought in the past that these major exercises may be aimed toward the DPRK in the event of instability or war; Taiwan is also mentioned as a possible cooperative effort.  In the absence of an ocean in Xinjiang or Chelyabinsk with an island in the middle of it, I’m not seeing the Taiwan analogy much.

Why Xinjiang?
However, I do not believe that the placement of this year's exercises in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region is any accident.  The ethnic Uighur population is considered by China to be the most likely to commit acts of domestic terrorism.  Therefore, large, loud, and conventional exercises may be calculated to have Xinjiang “troublemakers” think twice about violent dissent: a little deterrence value.   In addition, Xinjiang has become increasingly critical to the rest of China's economic success, with oil being discovered there, as well as other extractable resources–and then there are those billion-dollar pipelines from Kazakhstan. 

Why Chelyabinsk?
As for Chelyabinsk Oblast, it is 82.3% ethnic Russian (as of 2002 census), so cowing ethnic minorities is not likely to have been the object there.  Chelyabinsk oblast is rich in iron ore, and military research (such as at Snezhinsk Russian Federal Nuclear Center, where warhead design is carried out) and thermonuclear testing have occurred there.  For thirty years, Chelyabinsk was closed to foreign visitors.  In the mid- to late-1990's, Chelyabinsk was considered by the U.S. to be a center of nuclear proliferation.  Therefore, I would guess these large-scale exercises are designed to practice protecting critical installations from terrorist attacks.

Military coordination:
Last of all, military cooperation serves many purposes for all collective security organizations that engage in it.  Like any profession that goes to conference, it allows the exchange of professional ideas and a way for each country to assess its own capabilities and the capabilities of its members.  It can be used as an incentive for outstanding personnel, to be allowed to engage with other countries and make contacts.  Last of all, practice makes perfect: if collective security is to deliver security, then some coordination of plans and missions is essential. 

Central Asian participation:
For Central Asia, military cooperation against terror and narcotics trafficking is an omnipresent need.  Central Asian states also have mines, nuclear plants, and pipelines to protect from depredations.  Furthermore, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan have a history of poorly-handled incidents betweeen border patrols of these three countries.  Learning security cooperation might not help craft better political policies for border regulation between these three states, but it will help ensure that security forces have a basis for cooperation–once border coordination is allowed politically.  But the sticky wicket in border cooperation is Uzbekistan: and they aren't participating very much . . .

Dear Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan: may your personnel have a successful performance during Peace Mission 2007!