After months of speculation and prognostication and forecasting about what would transpire at Polokwane, over who would win and what would result, over the state of the ANC, South Africa has now entered a new phase in its political development. Jacob Zuma's decisive victory over Thabo Mbeki, his ascension to the top post of the African National Congress, now appears to have created the conditions for months of speculation and prognostication and forecasting about what will transpire until the 2009 elections, over who will win in the future and what will result, over the state of the ANC.
Even as Zuma tries to calm fears over the corruption charges he likely faces in the coming weeks and months he also has to reassure the rest of the world that he is not about to embark on a punitive purging of the ANC. That is not to say that as a result of events in Polokwane there won't be a shake-up of the ANC hierarchy. But the question, which Williams Gumede, respected observer of South African Politics and author of the book Thabo Mbeki and the Battle for the Soul of the ANC, addresses in The Guardian, is whether or not the Zuma triumph will result in a break-up of the ANC. Gumede sounds a largely optimistic note:
For all its shortcomings, the process completed yesterday has been ultimately constructive. The achilles heel of most African liberation movements has been their failure to have competitive elections, either out of fear of division, or deference to the sitting leader. Importantly, both these stifling taboos have now been broken in the ANC. The election has been insufficient and stifled, but even the limited democratic space it has opened is a step forward. Zuma will almost certainly face tougher scrutiny and more urgent demands to deliver. And, critically, a precedent has been set: grassroots members can vote out unresponsive leaders.
2008 should be fascinating.