SUMMARY:
The old Chinese curse declaims “May you live in interesting times.” Times are always interesting in South Africa, and 2007 proved to be one of the most interesting years of all.
In South Africa everything is political and politics seems to be everything. In 1999 Nelson Mandela yielded control of the ANC and thus the country’s political leadership to Thabo Mbeki. No such smooth transition is underway in 2007 as Mbeki attempts to hold on to the party leadership (while still claiming that he plans to give up the country’s presidency) against a challenge from his former Vice President, Jacob Zuma. A year ago Zuma was dogged by rape and corruption allegations that made his ascension to the country’s top political post seem laughable. Today Zuma appears to be the favorite to take over the ANC’s top spot at the ANC’s national conference to be held in Polokwane in the middle of December. But given that the country’s next national election is not scheduled to be held until 2009 much can change, and the next year is likely to see an increase in political tensions that are already snare-drum tight. No matter what happens the Zuma-Mbeki cage match will only intensify.
South Africa’s 2007 was not all solipsistic naval gazing, however. The country continued to wrestle with its role in continental affairs, treading the fine line between being the region’s clear power and wanting to avoid being its schoolyard bully. nowhere was this fraught role more clearly illustrated than in its dealings with megolomaniacal Robert Mugabe and the crisis Mugabe has wrought in Zimbabwe. South Africa’s silent diplomacy with Mugabe was clearly deficient and so Mbeki accepted the Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) charge to mediate the conflicts between Mugabe and the opposition groups he has for so long terrorized. Those negotiations thus far have not yielded many fruits either. For all of the criticisms of Mbeki and South Africa, however, few have proposed a viable course of action to take against Zimbabwe’s Big Man.
Sport in South Africa is not politics or global relations. Sport is far more important than that. The biggest sports story, indeed, arguably the biggest non-political story in South Africa in 2007, was the Springbok victory over all comers in the World Cup of Rugby held in France. But the victory did not come without its own political infighting. Before the World Cup the ubiquitous question of the team’s racial makeup threatened to derail an emphasis on the games. Then after the team’s heroic exploits, with Bryan Habana leading the way as international player of the year, Springbok coach Jake White resigned, leading to recrimination, finger pointing, and the sort of sporting chaos with which South Africans are so familiar.
Most Critical Event:
Hands down the most critical event in South Africa in 2007 is yet to come, and that is the ANC conference in Polokwane that is scheduled to kick off in ten days. With more than a year to go before the election there is plenty of room for machinations, politicking, intrigue, and chaos. If Jacob Zuma emerges victorious from the conference all it might take would be for the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) to pursue corruption charges against Zuma and his road to succeed Mbeki will find a huge road block before it. Nonetheless the Polokwane meeting will likely reveal a great deal about the schisms in South African politics, which in so many ways reflect the divisions in South African society as a whole.
Most Influential Person:
Could it be anyone other than Thabo Mbeki? Mbeki is almost inarguably the most important figure in the post-Mandela era, and in many ways, beyond Mendela’s symbolic force and moral stature, Mbeki may be the most important figure in South African history since 1994. earlier this year at dcat I wrote the following:
Thabo Mbeki is a fascinating figure if for no other reason than that he is not Nelson Mandela. South Africa has gone through a successful transition from apartheid to resistance leadership. Though Mbeki was every bit a resistance figure himself, albeit in exile in England and thus without the romance attached to Mandela’s “Robben Island University” cohort, in many ways he is the country’s first post-resistance leader. Mandela’s brilliant move to serve just one term, instantly bequesting unto his nation yet another gift, a rejection of the Big Man that has so terrorized much of the rest of the continent, proved a dual-edged sword for Mbeki. For Mbeki is not a God among men.
Mbeki reminds me a bit of Harry S. Truman in some small (and merely suggestive) ways. While not the humble, plain-spoken sort that Truman was, and while he operates in a vastly different context of history and his nation’s political development, Mbeki nonetheless shares one thing in common with the man from Missouri: Both operate(d) under a shadow. FDR’s shadow, as William Leuchtenburg and Alonzo Hamby have both so ably shown, was so overwhelming that it provided the prevailing paradigm under which American politicians operated for half a century. Mandela’s shadow might prove to be even more lasting. Shadows of Gods tend to be. One wonders if, also like Truman, Mbeki will be more appreciated by historians than he is by many of the intelligentsia today. Certainly Mbeki is more popular than Truman was throughout most of his tenure, but at the same time, South African politics are dramatically different than those under which Truman operated in the 1940s. Nonetheless, both men were almost destined to look smaller than their predecessor. Truman emerged to become a significant historical figure in his own right. Might Mbeki end up playing a similar historical role?
Jacob Zuma notwithstanding, expect Mbeki to occupy this spot in 2008 as well. Respect him or hate him (and in South Africa today those seem like the only two options) Mbeki is the figure who defines South African politics even if only so that people can define themselves against him.
(Honorable Mention: Jacob Zuma)
Most Influential Company:
Surely no company, parastatal or otherwise, played as a visible and controversial a role in South Africa in 2007 as the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC). the state’s most respected journalistic arm or the government’s mouthpiece? Voice for the people or feckless apologist for the state? Whichever side one takes there is no doubting that on a day-to-day basis the SABC plays a larger role in South African lives than any other. But the fact that the SABC solons seem so willing to acquiesce to the demands of the ANC is disquieting for those committed to a truly free press in not only South, but also throughout Southern Africa.
Most Influential (Or arguably Most important) Organization:
If not the country’s most “influential” organization, (not as crucial as the ANC, for example) South Africa’s Local Organizing Committee for the 2010 FIFA World Cup is still crucial. Not only is the LOC responsible for organizing the logistics of the World Cup, a daunting enough challenge, it also is responsible for presenting South Africa to the world. Crime, AIDS, transportation, infrastructure, and myriad other considerations have become the concern of the LOC. Hopefully they will address these issues in ways that will have longstanding benefits to South Africa and not just serve as a temporary palliative for the succor of tourists flush with cash and desirous of seeing a Potemkin Africa.
Most Unexpected Development:
Could it be anything other than the Phoenix-like rise of Jacob Zuma? Accused of rape and a gaggle of corruption charges, Zuma fell out of favor with Thabo Mbeki and found himself effectively shunned and marginalized not only from Mbeki but from the ANC power nexus. But the very act of being set aside allowed for Mbeki’s agonistes to pull Zuma closer. Not surprisingly, many of those who were inlined to embrace Zuma came from the COSATU/SACP wing of the tripartite ANC alliance, which had long sought to find a way to chellenge the party hierarchy from the left. Whether Zuma is otherwise the ideal candidate to pose that challenge from the left is another question, but his opportunism is just another element of what makes his re-emergence at the center of the country’s politics so surprising, and in its way compelling. Few in June would have predicted that Zuma would enter the Polokwane conference as the favorite to take over the party’s mantle of leadership.
Best Books:
Two books published late in the year represent arguably the finest books on, about, or from South Africa in 2007. Mark Gevisser’s new biography, Thabo Mbeki: The Dream Deferred and Martin Meredith’s Diamonds, Gold, and War: The British, the Boers and the Making of South Africa represent vitally important contributions that provide insight into the South Africa present through explorations of the South African past. These represent not only good books, but also important books that deserve a wide audience.
Most Important Foreign Affairs Issue:
While the ongoing crisis in Darfur has rightfully chagrined the world (rhetorically; that chagrin has not yet translated into action, talk being easier and cheaper than action) and has been important to South Africa’s foreign policy agenda, the nightmare across the Limpopo River in Zimbabwe has occupied most of South Africa’s foreign policy energies. Few have posited a viable solution to the problems Robert Mugabe (Biggest Thorn in South Africa’s Side) poses, which has rarely stopped critics from condemning perceived South African inaction. Such is the dilemma of being the region’s lone superpower.
Most Important Domestic Issue:
Beyond simply “politics,” the most important domestic issues in South Africa are the same as they were in 2000, which almost undoubtedly wil be the central domestic crises of 2010: Crime and Hiv/AIDS. Both seem intractable. Both are easy to condemn, but those who engage in the condemnation never have viable solutions. Both threaten the country’s stability, prosperity, and long-range future. Both are a function of both poverty but are also the result of willful concrete behavior. And both appear to have been exacerbated by inaction and malpractice on the part of the ruling party.
Best Display of Global Dominance:
I had to sneak the Springboks in here somewhere. For sports fans South Africa always seems to fall short, landing in the good but not good enough category, which tends to frustrate the country’s fans, who like nothing more than to overrate then complain about the local teams. The Proteas fell short in the cricket World Cup. Last year Bafana Bafana did not even make the World Cup finals. But this year’s Springboks managed to live up to the heavy burden South Africans placed upon them. Of course the issue of race never disappears in any element of South African society, never mind in a program so fraught with its racial past as rugby. And the Jake White situation is frankly unseemly and galling. But in the end, Amobokoboko triumphed on the pitch when it counted, and their victory over England added a new chapter to Springbok lore. Nothing can ever match 1995 for historical significance, symbolic resonance, or inspiration. But the 2007 squad was a truly great one that deserved the world championship. The good feelings should last all the way until their first international test series in 2008.
Predictions for 2008:
Predictions are a fool’s errand. They are rarely right, except when they are intentionally vague in the manner of astrological readings that create the conditions for almost anything to be interpreted as being accurate.
That said, here are some educated guesses as to what South Africa has in store for the next year:
Whatever happens at Polokwane will not prove to be the final arbiter in the ANC struggle for power. Zuma’s struggles are just beginning. And there is always the hope for a third way to emerge. Don’t be surprised if Tokyo Sexwale or Cyril Ramaphosa have something to say with how things play out. And if Mandela weighs in, all bets are off.
If Robert Mugabe dies, or something happens to make him yield power, the vacuum that emerges will lead to tremendous instability. As with most tyrants, Mugabe has not done anything seriously to pave the way for his successor. The fact that the Movement for Democratic Change is divided will only fuel instability. Thabo Mbeki needs to work to pave the way for the transition even if he is unwilling to force Mugabe’s hand. But it would be nice if Mbeki could find a way to force Mugabe’s hand.
The Springbok honeymoon will be brief, if it is not over already. The White situation is representative of a larger schism within the rugby leadership. And the conflicted views of racial representation on the Springbok squad will only exacerbate the void. Expect Allister Coetzee to gain traction as a possible White replacement. Coetzee would be the first black Springbok coach.
FIFA will continue to hold Damocles’ sword over South Africa’s head in the form of threatening to move the World Cup elsewhere. By the end of the year FIFA will claim that South Africa is on pace to host a successful world championship tournament. Their endorsement will not sound especially convincing. And yet it will be largely accurate. One will suspect that a European nation would not face such scrutiny.
The NPA will reinstate corruption charges against Jacob Zuma. Chaos will continue to characterize South African politics. This will be a boon to guys who write about South African politics such as yours truly.