There is less than a fortnight before Zimbabweans go to the polls in what could be an epochal election but in what will most likely result in a rigged and effectively predetermined reaffirmation of Robert Mugabe's stranglehold on power.
Mugabe is receiving support from some vocal sources, at least some of which makes it pretty obvious what an uphill course Simba Makoni has to run. The country's Commissioner-General of the Police, Augustine Chihuri, told officers at Police General Headquarters in Harare that he will not tolerate American- and British-supported “puppets” to take control in Zimbabwe. (Allegations that the publisher of South Africa's Mail & Guardian, Trevor Ncube, donated 300,000 Rands to Majoni's campaign in recent days – which Ncube denies – merely serves to fuel the paranoia and confirm outside influences in the mind of those inclined toward looking for the marionette strings.) This less-than-subtle evocation of one of Mugabe's pet phrases for just about anyone who opposed him does not bode well for the country's security situation when the election arrives. More importantly, Chihuri's words reveal that even if Makoni somehow can manage to win a vote that will be stacked against him in every imaginable way, the threat of force to stop him from taking office will be very real.
Mugabe has also received the support of Nolbert Kunonga, the beleaguered Anglican Bishop of Harare, whose church is trying to oust him. Long a supporter of Mugabe, Kunonga has declared Mugabe to be “a prophet of God who was sent to deliver the people of Zimbabwe from bondage.” Kunonga's advocacy is unlikely to make much of a difference at the end of the month, but his endorsement does reveal the nearly messianic support that Mugabe manages to maintain in some circles. And in any case, Mugabe is surely more interested in the tangible benefits that the embrace of the head of the country's police forces offers him than he is in the backing of the clergy, though he’ll welcome anyone into the folds who sees him as a prophet.
Increasingly it is clear that in a free and fair election, Zimbabwe's urban masses would play the decisive role in the election. For the cities represent the strongholds of opposition politics, and are where the country's disastrous economic course is most readily apparent. A country where sewage runs through the streets of the capital city really ought to be ripe for a leadership change. But the city vote is easiest to suppress and the rural vote, where Mugabe claims his greatest strengths, is easiest to manipulate so that while nothing about this election will be either free or fair, Mugabe will not have to worry about making sure his henchmen don't allow Makoni to take power — things will never reach that point.