To offer some sweet relief for your Monday blues, here's some Central Asian geopolitical analytical madness! A couple of weeks ago we discussed the EU's attempts at diversifying CA gas exports to circumvent Russian territory and influence, mainly in Turkmenistan. In addition, on this blog we have talked about China and India's growing role in the region, once again usually centered on natural resources. The geopolitics surrounding CA's ‘Great Game’ have been analyzed for decades, but I must admit the stories and actors involved remain vibrant and the debate about who's winning and losing rages on.
Professor Stephen Blank, from the US Army War College, has written an excellent piece analyzing Russia's March 11 deal with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan to buy their gas at world prices. He argues that this move signifies a weakening Russian position in the region (and possibly in Europe) and rising regional cooperation between the Central Asian gas and oil producing states. Blank sees the region opening up for natural resource competition with an aggressive China with a voracious oil/gas appetite and the EU showing greater policy cohesion in regional resource negotiations. He asserts that this competition is forcing Russia into compromising positions (the price hike) and heightening the importance and negotiating posture of the CA states.
If one has been following the news lately, this analysis appears to be more right than wrong. Although, I believe Blank is overstating Russia's weakness (though not as much as this piece), he is right that the CA strategic resource holding states have gained an increasing amount of leverage with suitors from China, EU, US, and India joining Russia. Whether the CA states can use this an opportunity to heighten their regional cooperation, which has never been strong unless you count Soviet domination in the 20th century, is another story.
Blank argues that Russia desperately desires to keep China's actions in the region in line by chaining them down in an energy club based in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where they can work together to separate and exploit the CA states and keep the US/EU out of the loop at the same time. This is good policy for Russia in that it needs to be careful not to allow a CA with unchecked natural resource competition, but the SCO has not proven itself to be a strong enough group to hold its cohesiveness (aka Russia-China partnership) when it comes to such a vital national interest as oil/gas procurement. The SCO also receives weak marks in curtailing EU/US influence in the region. The US has its largest presence in the region (mainly due to the Afghanistan war) ever and as this article showcases, the EU is making progress in its energy dealings in the region.
Is Russia's hold on Central Asia, specifically regarding natural resources, ebbing or is its faltering influence highly exaggerated? Does the March 11 agreement portend rising regional cooperation between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan? Is more open competition for resources involving India, Russia, China, EU, and the US good or bad for the CA states? Do you think it was tough for Professor Stephen to grow up with the last name ‘Blank’?