While the replenishment and expansion of Hezbollah's artillery rocket arsenal has repeatedly been cited since the end of the 2006 conflict, perhaps the most important recent development has been its alleged acquisition of anti-aircraft missiles. This comes as Israel's cabinet was presented with an assessment today of the Hezbollah threat and as the group has voiced its desire to end Israeli Air Force (IAF) sorties over Lebanon. The group's ability to do this may threaten the IAF's ability to conduct reconnaissance flights over Lebanon, as well as its ability to provide air support to ground troops in Lebanon in the event of another conflict.
Hezbollah's Al-Manar TV subsequently issued a report today touching upon these alleged developments, claiming they have created anxiety within Israel's security establishment. An article in the Lebanese pro-opposition daily Al-Akhbar also speculated – citing an Israeli media report – that today's cabinet meeting in Israel would reveal a discouraging security situation. The article also cited Israeli media reports published at the end of last week indicating that Hezbollah was working to put into place Russian-made SA-8 (currently found in Syria) and SA-15 (further developed in Iran) missile systems.
It appears that the advancement in Hezbollah's military capabilities have become increasingly worrisome since it coincides with an expected Lebanese cabinet policy statement granting the group the right to keep its weapons. Thus, while fears over Hezbollah's ability to achieve both strategic and political victories may lead to an Israeli military response, such a response would likely be surgical and limited in its nature in order to avoid giving the group any increased political capital, which would likely result from significant collateral damage and civilian casualties.