Now that the dust is settled we can reflect on the past week or so and see where we stand in this ongoing Georgian crisis. We have learned:
- – Georgia started the conflict.
- – Russia reacted in a more or less predictable manner.
- – The U.S. armed and trained Georgia and therefore can't feign surprise at Georgia seeking to reclaim South Ossetia. Although, to be fair, we trained and equipped them under the Georgia Train and Equip Program to have a light infantry, counter-insurgency capability, not something you would use to go up against Russian heavy infantry, something they should have realized. Their job was to promote regional security, pipeline protection and defense against insurgents (Chechens, al Qaeda, etv.) and not to attack their neighbors.
- – The people of South Ossetia feel no kinship with Georgia and want to be united with North Ossetia, located in Russia.
- – This is Russian payback for Kosovo.
- – Russia will not pull back to a status quo ante, we must deal with the new reality.
I’m optimistic that going forward the U.S. has the tools and strategies needed from the last time the we had to deal with an expansionist Russia. I agree with Zbigniew Brzezinski's analysis that we need to be very determined, not blustery or prideful, but focused on our long term goals and most of all, calculating in ratcheting up the pressure on Russia in a measured way that allows them to step back if they choose to, allowing them to save face while diffusing the crisis. The new Europe of the 21st Century is starting to look very much like the old Europe of the Cold War era, and we know how to deal with that.