- Beijing 2008 Olympic Games , Considered a successful demonstration on behalf of Beijing, which debuted its growth to the rest of the world, but all the attention the country received was not awarded without controversy over its contested human rights record, and unfavorable environmental practices.
- Strategic Economic Dialogue , Gained momentum at the beginning of the year with over a couple sessions of bilateral trade talks, but productivity slowed at the most recent dialogue, where the spin-up over the global recession strained efforts to come to a consensus on specific economic issues
- China-Taiwan Talks , Chinese and Taiwanese envoys agreed to engage in regular talks, scheduled to take place every period of 6 months. This past year, one of these sessions resulted in an agreement to expand upon the limited number of direct flights occurring between the two locales. As talks progress, the countries are expected to cooperate financially, allowing banks to establish branches on each side of the Taiwan Strait.
Impact of Global Recession
Since the global recession, the co-dependent nature of the US and China's partnership has become more pronounced, with each country working more urgently to push its priorities. In addition to the recession, the year's high-visibility events have forced Washington and Beijing into a room together more frequently, providing the partnership with increased opportunities to exchange dialogue, clarify stances, facilitate understanding, and hopefully , flourish.It has become clear given the recent global turn of events that the USA and China will need to hinge upon their shared interested to effect individual country agendas.
2008 Event that should have received more coverage: China-Taiwan dialogue. This relationship will have pervasive global impacts along many tracks; military, political, and economic.
Greatest Misconception: China as a threat to the US. Read arguments from both sides of the fence and weigh in at Opposing Views.
2009 Forecast
- The Obama Administration|
Obama administration's path forward on US-China relations and trade agreements would be silly not to continue to engage China as the country's largest export market, though it is uncertain whether he will continue to employ the SED shell that was set forth under Bush/Paulson leadership.During the race, Obama was supported by the Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO), the largest union in the US. The AFL-CIO's China stance has been published as one believing China to be a totalitarian country, artificially lowering labor costs through deprivation of basic rights, and providing China with a trade surplus, directly impacting cuts in American manufacturing jobs. AFL-CIO has also emphasized its support of Obama's promise to address blue-collar workers, saying that past presidencies have favored the financial industry and investors.Obama seems very conscious of the fact that his status as president-elect is the result of a strong showing by middle-America, and many would be surprised if he were to shy away from honoring his commitments to them. Obama has gone on record to criticizeBeijing's currency manipulation as recently as a few days before the election, in response to rising unemployment stateside. Failing to adjust current international trade policies would be a slap in the face for a lot of his primary constituents, and would counter a lot of the platforms that he built his campaign upon. During his campaign, his China stance became crystallized in a letter to the National Council on Textile Organizations, one evening on a stop in North Carolina, which is known for its dependence on the textile industry. Obama promised to "closely monitor textile shipments from China," as limits on Chinese-made apparel expire at the end of the year. He also pledged to make use of "trade-remedy laws to protect industries, like textile producers, if they are threatened by unfair competition from abroad."On the flip-side, the Chinese response to Obama's election has been overwhelmingly positive, with Chinese media outlets and interviewees describing him as "hip" and "unconventional:" “Perhaps his age, energy and even complexion, which signify the American dream, are more appealing to the Chinese,” Song Zhiyuan, who analyzed the survey, told the China Daily.”Rebecca Zhu, a 29-year-old bank employee, agreed. “No Chinese leader is that young,” she said. “Obama is attractive because he is hip and unconventional. He has even used e-mails to advance his campaign.”Among those Chinese following the US presidential race who were polled, Obama supporters exceeded those for McCain by 17.8%. As with historical trends where the policies of Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton resonated with local Chinese, this statistic seems to suggest that Chinese simply follow popular beliefs held by Americans. - The Taiwan Question
Whether confrontation occurs between the US and China will be driven most by how each state manages its relationship with Taiwan. Where the US supports democracy, and is even obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to respond to perceived Chinese use of force against Taiwan, it has been careful not to stack its moral and political commitment to Taiwan against its strengthening trade partnership with China.China, on the other hand, has consistently sent the message loud and clear that the One China policy is the only policy it recognizes, and the avoidance of domestic embarrassment alone fortifies the country's conviction on this issue.Although much is at stake for each when it comes to defending its stance on Taiwan's autonomy, the US and China seem to agree that the bigger pot is pursuing what benefits their collaborative partnership may yield. Neither party is ready to estrange itself from its most important trade partner, and risk losing favorable relations with a handful of directly-related third parties in the process.As the US and China actively work to genuinely understand each other, there will be little reason to find conflict over this issue. It seems that agreeing to disagree will keep this issue locked in a stalemate for some time.
It will behoove both countries to cooperate in order to individually advance their respective agendas. In order to better control outsourcing and provide more commitment to climate issues, Washington will need Beijing's endorsement and support. To improve economic reforms, raise domestic consumption, and increase energy efficiency, Beijing will look to guidance from Washington.