In recent weeks South Africa's newly established African National Congress dissident party, the Congress of the People (COPE), has dominated the political discussion and thus in many meaningful ways has won the news cycle. The ANC has consistently fought back, but have consistently appeared to be reacting to COPE rather than actively controlling the agenda. This appears to be changing.
Thousands of ANC supporters met at a party rally in East London on Saturday, providing a reminder not only of the ANC's strength in the party's historic Eastern Cape strongholds, but of its ability to mobilize supporters in massive numbers across the country. At the rally the party presented its election manifesto. To use a boxing metaphor, the ANC is the undisputed champion of South African politics. COPE will have to take the title by knockout, because the ANC will not go down in a split decision.
At the rally Jacob Zuma's supporters reaffirmed their commitment to their man, despite his still tenuous status in the eyes of the National Prosecuting Authority, which seems determined to reinstate corruption charges against Zuma if it loses a Supreme Court challenge the decision for which should be announced on Monday. A defeat would almost certainly provide a blow to the NPA, and in that case it would be increasingly likely that Zuma would seek a deal to make the worst of the charges against him disappear.
If something were to go awry for Zuma, Kgalema Motlanthe has proved to be both capable as interim president and loyal to the ANC and would almost certainly provide the party with a logical successor to Zuma to represent the party in the elections later this year. In many ways a Motlanthe candidacy might prove more formidable than that of the divisive Zuma, who seems to inspire deep loyalty in some circles and equally deep loathing in others.