Georgia may have once been America’s darling in the Caucasus, but no more. As pressure mounts from within on Georgia’s young President, Mikhail Saakashvili, the political dynamics outside the country seem ever less favorable. First there was the world economic crisis, reducing trade and foreign aid. Then there was the lukewarm attitude toward Georgia on the part of Europe, prompted by Russia’s efforts to isolate Tbilisi politically. Now, an Obama administration focused on Turkey and its fragile rapprochement with Armenia serve to steer attention away from Georgia to nearby countries with less chaotic internal affairs. Last August, John McCain and Joe Biden vied to prove themselves and their respective tickets the better champion of the stalwart Georgians. Now the bloom is off Saakashvili’s “Rose Revolution.”
Russia has reportedly redoubled its efforts to weaken Georgia from within, but it may be pushing on an open door. Saakashvili’s unpopularity appears to be rising even without Moscow taking a direct hand. If Georgia descends further into political uncertainty, Moscow will be the beneficiary — just as it is in Ukraine, home to the fading Orange Revolution. Before Russia, no stranger herself to revolution, can capitalize on the internal weaknesses of her former territories, she must address her own internal weaknesses. Weakened economic and political institutions across a broad stretch of southern Eastern Europe — from Moldova to the Caucasus — are not a harbinger of democratic spring, but fragility and possible upheaval.