Zimbabwe’s coalition government has approved an ambitious profram of privatization. One of the first tests of that policy will be the sale of NetOne, Zimbabwe’s state-owned cell phone service provider. If private investment provides any gauge whatsoever about the belief that Zimbabwe is on the right course, the fact that private companies are clamoring to be involved in the country’s private cell phone sector is a positive indicator. This makes sense — throughout southern Africa telephone landlines are expensive, service is dubious, and cellphone technology matches, and in some cases surpasses, that available in the West. investing in Zimbabwe’s cell phone infrastructure is thus likely a risk worth taking. But that so many want to take it still tells us something, even if we have to recognize that it does not tell us everything.
Furthermore, Zimbabwe’s Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, Robert Mugabe’s foil in the unity government, believes that there is no turning back, and thus preaches reconciliation. Mugabe certainly will continue to be the wild card, but the ascension of Jacob Zuma to the South African presidency should give the old despot pause if he considers any shenanigans. Zuma has been quite clear in his willingness to pursue a harder line across the Limpopo. Whether he will follow through is another matter, but Mugabe has to realize that disrupting the relative calm that the unity government has brought runs considerable risk and diminished reward. This realization might not be enough to keep Mugabe in line, of course, but Mugabe has tended to show a pretty good knack for self preservation.