Despite Russian objections to “meddling” in its sphere of influence, the European Union launched an “eastern partnership” with six former Soviet republics – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – at a summit yesterday in Prague. The plan is designed to extend political and economic ties and promote democratic reforms. Notably, leaders from Britain, France, Italy and Spain did not attend the event, possibly indicating a lack of enthusiasm or divisions over the initiative.
The partnership was conceived by Poland and Sweden in 2007 to reinforce the existing European Neighborhood Policy. The EU will provide nearly $800 million in incentives by 2013, improve trade conditions and simplify visa procedures (but the partnership does not come with the promise of eventual EU membership). In turn, the six countries agreed to improve human rights and practice good governance.
Depending on one’s perspective, the nations lying between Russia and the European Union are in Russia’s near abroad or Europe’s neighborhood. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern that “there are those who may wish to present the invited participants with the choice: either you are with Russia, or with the European Union.” But European leaders believe that the partnership does not threaten Russia. Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek emphasized that the initiative “should not be a renewal of two blocs east and west, it should not be a fight for influence” and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that it is “directed against no one, including Russia.”
Andrew Wilson and Nicu Popescu from the European Council on Foreign Relations argue that the “EU’s influence is evaporating in its own back yard” and avoiding a new iron curtain is essential. Even though “all of EU’s eastern neighbors, except Belarus, trade more with the EU than with Russia…the EU is losing political relevance in the east. Throughout the last years the EU has not managed to prevent the region from collapsing deeper into growing authoritarianism and instability.”
The pull of the European Union provides regional security (this strength is often overlooked), but the six countries arguably characterize the limits of European power. The EU has not effectively exerted influence and exported stability in the volatile region. Armenia and Azerbaijan are still trying to resolve the seemingly frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Belarus is dubbed the “last dictatorship in Europe.” Georgia is straddled with internal dissent, burdened with Russian pressure and entangled in the strained NATO-Russia relations. Moldova recently faced violent unrest following a disputed election. And Ukraine needs financial assistance and the crisis is heightened by debilitating rivalry between political leaders and tensions with Russia.
Energy disputes and the war between Russia and Georgia have caused the EU to look east with increasing anxiety. The struggle for influence in the region will continue and will help shape the global balance of power. But leaders from the six ex-Soviet states will complicate the competition as they are adept at playing Russia and Europe off against one another.
Clip from France 24.