(Belated Happy Birthday! This was my 1000th post for the FPA Africa Blog!)
Even as Jacob Zuma plans to head to Zimbabwe to try to channel negotiations and perhaps play the role of peacemaker the dynamic north of the Limpopo might be set to change radically — and not, as many might assume, for the better. President Robert Mugabe, the source of so many of Zimbabwe’s troubles, has apparently fallen ill and speculation is running rampant. ZANU-PF spokesmen have denied assertions of Mugabe’s illness, calling such speculation “rubbish.” Of course that merely lends an air of the Soviet Politburo in the 1980s for many observers who would carry an umbrella if ZANU-PF observers assured them that it was sunny outside. (Generally speaking, consider me an umbrella bearer.)
Mugabe is probably fine, or at least as fine as an 86-year-old despot with prostate issues is likely to be. His meeting with Zuma tomorrow will likely go forward, and hopefully Zuma will walk the tightrope and send the right messages to Mugabe while at the same time keeping the wily old man listening.
But what would it mean were Mugabe to succumb to one malady or another? There is already speculation that the military and security forces that have for so long kept Mugabe firmly entrenched have become the tail wagging the dog and that Mugabe’s continued hold on power comes only at the pleasure of the generals and not the other way around. Mugabe owes equally to the more anarchic threats of the so-called war veterans who have so long made up the backbone of Mugabe’s support. Worse yet, all of the men with guns — the police, the official military, and the increasingly shady war veterans — seemingly have antipathy toward Morgan Tsvangirai, the leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and the Prime Minister whose position in the coalition government has been tenuous from the outset. Given these facts, Mugabe’s death would almost certainly unleash paroxysms of violence, reprisal (no matter how Mugabe dies, some will likely try to pin it on Tsvangirai, the MDC and its supporters, and on Mugabe’s favorite target, “The West) and of course jockeying for position.
Even in the worst of times it is somewhat untoward to wish for someone’s death. But in the case of Mugabe, even if the sentiment makes sense, the outcome might, especially in the short run, prove disastrous for Zimbabweans already bent and beaten from the worst of Mugabe’s misrule. It would be a grim irony indeed if the old jackal died off and things became worse than ever.
Hopefully Jacob Zuma knows this and is preparing to charm and coerce and cajole Mugabe to plan for succession sooner than later. Catastrophe in Zimbabwe is bad for South Africa during the best of times, and given the economic instabilities that have been exacerbated by the recession these are far from the best of times, the last thing Zuma wants in the early stages of his presidency is for Zimbabwe to return to the nadir. Robert Mugabe is bad for Zimbabwe. The only thing that might be worse would be his death.