As I mentioned in my previous post, Iran has made a significant announcement regarding its nuclear program. Iran’s ambassador delivered a letter to the IAEA announcing Iran’s plans to begin enriching Iran’s stockpile of uranium to 20%. This is significant because once Iran can enrich Uranium to 20%, the required 90% enrichment threshold for weapon- grade uranium can be reached more easily. David Albright of Washington’s Institute for Science and International Security told the Associated Press news agency Iran’s planned enrichment “would be going most of the rest of the way to weapon-grade uranium”. Iran also announced plans to open 10 more nuclear power plants beginning on March 21, 2010.
That being said, there are a lot of doubts as to whether Iran can enrich Uranium to 20% in the near future. Currently, Iran enriches Uranium at 3.5%-4%. It has had some difficulties at its facility at Natanz.
It seems that Ahmadinejad’s announcement and Iran’s letter to the IAEA had strategic purpose both for foreign relations and national politics.
- The Iranian opposition is calling for major protests on February 11. Iran’s government wants to posture in front of its own people, as the nuclear program is a source of national pride. This is a standard tactic, one that was often used by the Communist Party in the Soviet Union whenever its people were unhappy. The party would launch a rocket ship into space or develop some new toy so the citizens would be distracted from the gloom of everyday life and not blame the party for their troubles.
- The Iranians want to reopen negotiations with the West and Russia regarding the proposal to enrich uranium in Russia and send the enriched version back to Iran. Iran rejected this proposal by letting the deadline pass on acceptance. The Iranians hope to get more favorable terms from the West by escalating the situation and returning to the negotiating table from a position of strength.
The United States, France and Russia have all called for stronger sanctions against Iran. The Israel Blog has the analysis here.