Nabucco, the gas pipeline that will transport energy to Europe without Gazprom, has always been tentative. Turkmenistan, the main supplier, seems to have over-stretched itself, with export promises to China, Russia, and Iran. The other main source, Azerbaijan’s Shah-Deniz field, is under dispute with Turkey over pricing.
OMV, an Austrian firm, isn’t sure there is enough demand.
Gazprom has been pushing its own alternative, South Stream, which will cross the Black Sea and do nothing for Europe’s diversification goals and further impoverish transport countries like Ukraine, Belarus and Poland.
Now the US State Department’s Special Envoy for Eurasian energy affairs, Richard Morningstar, in what seems very strange, is suggesting that Gazprom could be a supplier for Nabucco! So this extremely politically difficult, extremely expensive pipeline, being built to diversify Europe’s supply chain, may be rendered pointless.
Ok, so this talk may amount to nothing, but it does show how much needs to be resolved before construction begins- now scheduled for 2011, to be operational by 2015. To be sure, on paper, all is going as planned- on February 3, all five stakeholder countries ratified an inter-governmental agreement on Nabucco.