The AP reported over the weekend past that more than 200 supporters of the BNP were arrested during a day long protest strike that the BNP had called to speak out against political moves it has challenged as Awami League misrule.
As the AP piece observes, the return of hte hartaal (protest strike) is a strong signal that politics as usual has returned to Bangladesh with fiery vengeance. This move signals a troubling development for the ruling party because the protests and the anti-AL public program coincides with the country’s devastating power crisis and a more precarious political environment where voters are splitting the blame for their troubles onto both parties.
Nevertheless, a more forceful move to ‘take back the streets’ could redouble back to the BNP, devastating their already crumbling support. Serious strategists within the party fear that turning the streets of Dhaka into a local Bangkok could have grievous electoral consequences.
However since the AL effectively owns the apparatus of legitimate state violence, any evidence of untoward reaction could singe AL support. Indeed, the AP piece suggests that the Rapid Action Battalion security force attacked opposition leaders and their supporters. Increased frequency of these reports–which seem to emanate overwhelmingly from private media outlets–threatens to erode Sheikh Hasina’s power base of goodwill within the electorate and the international diplomatic community.
The BNP is at pains to draw a strict line between itself and its ‘criminal supporters‘. However, if it falls victim to its historically suggestive bent toward a totalitarian ethic, the AL will have done itself immeasurable harm: along with its international support, it will have lost the support of international investors who will begin to think direct investment in the country a dire political risk. Neither the AL nor the BNP can afford that outcome.