By now nearly every media outlet has written up comments about General David Petraeus’s interview with David Gregory on Meet the Press. Indeed, I have as well, in my other role as way-ward political artist. For now, though I’d like comment on General Petraeus’ deeply analytical understanding of the current situation in Afghanistan.
Mr. Gregory did not fail to ask General David Petraeus whether he though victory in Afghanistan was a substantive concept.
What does victory in Afghanistan mean? What does loss mean?
General Petraeus’s answer (repeated, often at length) was that victory is a sum accumulation of progress, where progress is defined piece-meal, a series of moves at driving out the Taliban in areas of interest, reconciling those who would lay down their arms and swear fealty to the Constitution of Afghanistan.
But more importantly, the structure of progress is one of a virtuous cycle–that much was obvious, ex ante–of expectations. Defeat the enemy, clear and hold the ground and move in such a way that the current victory reinforcing the possibility and expectation of victory in the next round of fighting. Parlay one occasion of triumphant defeat of the enemy in one field of combat into numerous occasions of victory against the same enemy and his syndicates (the Taliban is surely a syndicate, much like Chicago Capone gang).
Using some mechanism that establishes a virtuous cycle as laid out, the ISAF will then spread the boundaries of a modestly secure zone from Kabul to the Southern reaches of Afghanistan and then further Northward.
Victory then is to systematically spread security throughout the land like an oil spot, that spreads throughout a ruddy carpet. Note that General Petraeus failed to point out that an oil spot is invariable thicker, harder to erase in the middle , its point of focus and that the oil stain–here, security–runs shallower, the further the spot extends.
All this implies a respectable outcome to this war is years away; there’s yet more blood and money to pay and the net result may not be a thick cordoned off, secure war that might necessarily prevent the Taliban’s return to decisive power.
Finally, to add madness to worry, the 2012 political clock beats in time against every move that General Petraeus might possibly plan to ensure even an unsettled peace in Afghanistan.