The latest World Bank economic data are now available and they indicate a strong, growing economy for a stronger, more prosperous Bangladesh. The politics seem to be catching up, though some dark clouds yet remain on the horizon.
At 5.8% annual growth, the Bangladeshi economy outpaced the U.S economy’s growth, itself at a startlingly weak 2% for the third quarter. Much of the strong growth came from consumption, which came directly from international remittances and manufacturing growth. Nevertheless, domestic investment grew at a stagnating 24%, whilst rising food prices drove up inflation to 7%.
It comes as no surprise that the global recession shrank the growth of exports to foreign markets. The good news here is that nevertheless exports continue to grow positively.
The World Bank’s assessment, as mine is that though teh economic data seem promising, politics might still halt Bangladesh’s prosperity in its tracks. Arranging for a workable tax policy might yield greater economic growth-or it might draw down the economy in a tailspin. Anti-corruption moves remain a strongly contested policy pill. The government is sure to be hard pressed to design an anti-corruption doctrine with teeth. For then, it would then implicate members of its own leadership.
Furthermore overly heavy handed moves to prosecute (and eventually execute) members of the right wing Islamist parties could trigger public outrage that would then have deleterious effects on the domestic and foreign investment, quickly winding down the economy. Whatever the human rights injunctions against capital punishment of the individuals tried for genocide and gross human rights violations in 1971, systemic prudence to support economic investment and growth mights suggest moves against overly stringent and over-reaching criminal measures and adjudication.