To what degree are the current protests throughout the Middle East a product of high food prices? A recent Voice of America article noted that though the major causes of the revolts in the Middle East are government oppression, corruption, unemployment, and poverty; “experts say the rising price of food was one of the sparks that set off the historic protests.” World Bank chief economist Robert Zoellick echoed that sentiment in a Reuters article, saying that “although higher food prices were not the main cause leading to recent protests in Egypt and Tunisia, it was an aggravating factor and could become worse.”
Reuters also notes that many Middle Eastern governments have promised to relieve the burden of high food prices on their citizens either in response to the protests or to prevent them from breaking out.
“Algeria, Libya and Jordan have either relaxed food taxes or duties on food imports or cut prices of staple food, and Kuwait recently introduced a generous stipend and free food for its citizens until March 2012 to ease the pain of higher costs…Morocco’s government, which heavily subsidizes food and gas, has vowed to keep food prices at affordable levels ‘at any price’ for its population of 32 million.”
The report also points to the “simmering unrest in Yemen, the poorest Arab country, where 40 percent of the population lives on less than $2 per day.” Yemen is a food insecure country dealing with high rates of malnutrition, and William Lambers of Blog Critics argues that “if the U.S. and other governments want to see a stable Yemen, they need to realize now that hunger and malnutrition breed chaos.”
Unrest can also make a nation more food insecure, as Libya is finding out. The World Food Program says that “people in Libya are struggling with shortages of food, fuel and medical supplies and could face more difficulty if fresh stocks cannot be brought in.”
While the relationship between food security and the unrest in the Middle East is clear, signs of a global food recovery are not as certain. It is important to realize that the current crisis is different than the 2007-2008 global food crisis. FAO’s food price index is just 3% below its 2008 peak, but Kay McDonald of Big Picture Agriculture notes:
“In the 2007-08 food crisis, rice and wheat supplies became dangerously low and their prices surged. This time around, the foods that have caused the FAO food price index to rise are primarily sugar, corn and oils.”
Of the five foods that make up FAO’s Food Price Index, high prices for cereals affect the global poor much more significantly because cereals are staple foods that can take up to 80% of the poor’s disposable income, according to Reuters.
The price of rice is currently stable, and while the price of wheat is getting higher, it hasn’t reached its 2008 levels. The price of corn, however, is exorbitantly high, nearing its 2008 levels.
Still, World Bank data shows that higher food prices — mainly for wheat, corn, sugars and edible oils – have pushed 44 million more people in developing countries into extreme poverty since June 2010, when food prices for these commodities started increasing again.
Other areas of the world have offset the effect of high food prices by the availability of plentiful food stocks. Reuters points out that good harvests in Sub-Saharan Africa have so far spared that region from rising prices, and “unlike during the 2007-08 food crisis, higher prices have not yet affected all regions of the world.”
If food prices and availability are not improved, could the instability seen in the Middle East spread? The worry that they might still remains:
“Across Asia and in some parts of Latin America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, costlier food is pushing up inflationary pressures. ‘Central Asia is a region where these food prices have increased substantially and given the poverty levels … there is a real stress point that could have social and political implications,” World Bank chief economist Robert Zoellick said.
As to what the future holds, Kay McDonald of Big Picture Agriculture points out that
“It is too early to know whether we will have low stocks accompanied by high prices of rice, wheat, corn and other food staples a year from now. It is impossible to say how weather, economic conditions or policy decisions will play a role.”