A new US Energy Information Administration study, World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment of 14 Regions Outside the US, suggests that shale gas is going to be the game-changer around the world that it has been in the US. A good example is Poland.
According to the EIA study, Poland has 5.3 trillion cubic meters of shale gas largely running from the Baltic to the eastern border. Piotr Krzywiec, a geologist at Poland’s National Institute of Geology (PIG) told AFP that there is enough gas there to handle domestic needs “for the next 100, 200 or even 300 years.”
Poland imports 70% of the natural gas it uses, and 40% comes from Russia. In recent years, we have seen the Russians use their gas exports to put pressure on their neighbors. In 2009, a dispute between Russia and Ukraine over prices closed down a pipeline to western Europe for 13 days. Polish production on the scale Dr. Krzywiec foresees changes the market in Europe for gas.
Development of this shale gas will require fracking, that is, injecting liquid into the ground to break up the shale formations to free the gas. Environmentally, this practice has run into trouble in the US and elsewhere. In Poland, though, the green community is hardly strident. “We recommend caution when it comes to shale gas,” Greenpeace Poland spokesman Jacek Winiarski told AFP. Recommending caution is hardly throwing up a stop sign.
Currently, there are 90 exploration licenses issued in Poland for shale gas. It will take 2 or 3 years to completely assess just what is underground. If it turns out the gas is there and recoverable economically, I’d bet quite heavily that the greens won’t be able to stop development. The energy security issue is just too compelling.