It is projected that President Nicolas Sarkozy, right wing candidate, will lose to François Hollande, the socialist candidate, in the second round of the elections in May 2012. This result would very much look like Valéry Giscard d’Estaing losing at the end of his first mandate against the socialist candidate François Mitterand back in 1981. According to their model, Hollande would be winning over Sarkozy if they meet in the second round with 51.9% for Hollande and 48.1% for Sarkozy. The forecasting model is based on local and national data and includes economic (unemployment) and political (approval rating and previous results) variables. Here is their model:
What is certain is that François Hollande has been very appealing to a majority of French voters with his populist narratives on social and economic policies. His calls for financial reforms, renegotiation of the eurozone’s new fiscal pact, increase of taxes on the wealthy and so on have been very attractive to a large segment of French voters. However, the Merah case is a very good reminder that anything could affect the outcomes of an election. This has been the case for Mr. McCain in 2008 during the American Presidential race and will certainly happen again in the future. The Foucault-Nadeau model is an excellent one, but it does not include the wildcard variable of an unforeseen event.
Credits:
Photo 1: Hollande Socialist presidential candidate for 2012 François Hollande at an election rally. Photograph: Corbis
Photo 2: Euronews