Executive branch
The grand exception, and the one that is capturing attention, is that Mr. Nazarbaev will be exempt from term limits, able to run indefinitely for office after 2012 under five year terms. This is being called in the media as “President for Life” and Mr. Nazarbaev is being called “Kazakhbashi” already.
Second, the analysts assume that Kazakhstan's electorate will continue to accept or be apathetic to any presidential abuses of power. One reason popularly cited is a sort of post-Soviet inattention, but there is perhaps a more substantial reason for this “apathy.”
As a Ria Novosti article mentions, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate has been substantial under Mr. Nazarbaev's direction. The acceptance or apathy of the voting public needs to be linked to that growth. All over the world, most voters choose by their wallet. However, Kazakhstan's current growth and income distribution argues that further economic success is likely in the future. This means that continued voter acceptance of Mr. Nazarbaev also seems likely, without trotting in any Soviet-legacy malaise.
At any rate, should Mr. Nazarbaev sign this law, he would still have to proceed under Parliamentary law, which brings us to the next branch of government, the legislature.
The legislature
A second concern for Kazakhstan's legislature under this new framework is “party-list voting”. According to the ACE Encyclopedia (see below), party-list proportional representation can be structured to be more inclusive of opposition and minority groups, but it can also consolidate power within minorities of each party and cut parliament members off from their constituencies. Likewise, Wikipedia (also below) has a long list of different kinds of party-list representation, so by itself, party-list representation is not uncommon. None of the articles on Kazakhstan thus far have described whether this party-list system is an open system or a closed one. If it is an open system, then it should allow for stable change to a multi-party system. It will also likely be approved of by OSCE members. If it is a closed system, then it could be the change that is no change at all.
The legislature passed this bill in a reported 17 minutes, which could demonstrate that the compliments and powers granted Mr. Nazarbaev are, uh, unanimously agreed; it could demonstrate a non-transparent carrot-and-stick matrix of which we are not aware; it could also demonstrate a difference in what Kazakhstan perceives as a decorous lawmaking procedure. After listening to U.S. legislators in countless hearings on C-span, I am convinced that one should not confuse public contention with real political dispute, either.
Nevertheless, the law's signing could be decided by international or domestic contention. I think that OSCE countries could reasonably inquire through diplomatic channels whether this is open or closed parliamentary representation, and make their preference for an open system known. They could also ask Mr. Nazarbaev if he plans to sign any bill that gives him unlimited electability, and what he envisions for a post-Nazarbaev succession.
News stories on developments:
Ria Novosti, May 18, also linked above
Baltimore Sun, May 19
Vremya Novostei, May 21, also linked above
Jamestown Foundation, May 21
(**) Update: President Nazarbaev signed the law on May 22, 2007.
References on the Parliamentary System:
Wikipedia:
Parliamentary procedure
Party-list proportional voting
ACE Project Encyclopedia: all from ACE, “the electoral knowledge network”:
List Proportional Representation: Advantages, Disadvantages
Effect of electoral systems on Party system
Declaration on Criteria for Free and Fair Elections, passed by the Inter-parliamentary Union (1994)
Photos: WedgewoodBC.org; Caspian Partnership for the Future, Azerbaijan; Reuters/BBC; EducationSynthesis