Last week, Nathan Hamm at Registan.net posted twice on new constitutional reforms in Kazakhstan. In the first, he discussed how new constitutional changes would answer objections that many member states have toward Kazakhstan's OSCE leadership bid. In the second post, Nathan wrote that his earlier post might have been too optimistic, as some of the implications of the new rules are not quite as democratic as they look. Like Nathan, I’ve been looking at the news articles, and I agree that it looks like a mixed accomplishment from Western standards. Two things: The law hasn't been signed yet. (**) We’re not getting enough information yet.
Executive branch
Kazakhstan's parliament voted presidential term lengths down from a previously-inflated seven years to five years, beginning in 2012, when Mr. Nazarbaev's current term ends. The lowered term limits would be favorable to the OSCE. Starting in 2012 is neutral and stable, meaning that it “grandfathers in” the current arrangement.
The grand exception, and the one that is capturing attention, is that Mr. Nazarbaev will be exempt from term limits, able to run indefinitely for office after 2012 under five year terms. This is being called in the media as “President for Life” and Mr. Nazarbaev is being called “Kazakhbashi” already.
Two assumptions underlie the objections, both borne out in the past. The first is that Kazakhstan's elections have not yet been free and fair. Most notably, the last election was scarred by the murder of a popular and viable opposition candidate, Altynbek Sarsenbayev. The murderers were ostensibly found, tried, and sentenced, but the accusations against the Nazarbaev family or its close allies still hang in the air.
Second, the analysts assume that Kazakhstan's electorate will continue to accept or be apathetic to any presidential abuses of power. One reason popularly cited is a sort of post-Soviet inattention, but there is perhaps a more substantial reason for this “apathy.”
As a Ria Novosti article mentions, Kazakhstan's economic growth rate has been substantial under Mr. Nazarbaev's direction. The acceptance or apathy of the voting public needs to be linked to that growth. All over the world, most voters choose by their wallet. However, Kazakhstan's current growth and income distribution argues that further economic success is likely in the future. This means that continued voter acceptance of Mr. Nazarbaev also seems likely, without trotting in any Soviet-legacy malaise.
At any rate, should Mr. Nazarbaev sign this law, he would still have to proceed under Parliamentary law, which brings us to the next branch of government, the legislature.
The legislature
Mr. Nazarbaev proposed constitutional changes from a strong executive branch to a presidential-parliamentary system. The number of seats in the legislature has been raised from 116 to 154 members, giving the opposition a chance at further representation while raising the number of elections they must organize. Should they obtain a sizeable minority, they can still be neutralized. The dissolution of Parliament can be ordered by the president after consultation with the its Premier and the speakers. At that time, new elections can be ordered, or, the Majilis (lower body of Parliament) can be replaced by the upper chamber. This appears to leave power in the hands of the President, as a minimal number of legislators make an obstacle to starting over with a new, hand-picked crew. The pressure on opposition legislators who make it to the upper chamber looks formidable. Therefore, it appears that presidential power is left intact under this new system.
A second concern for Kazakhstan's legislature under this new framework is “party-list voting”. According to the ACE Encyclopedia (see below), party-list proportional representation can be structured to be more inclusive of opposition and minority groups, but it can also consolidate power within minorities of each party and cut parliament members off from their constituencies. Likewise, Wikipedia (also below) has a long list of different kinds of party-list representation, so by itself, party-list representation is not uncommon. None of the articles on Kazakhstan thus far have described whether this party-list system is an open system or a closed one. If it is an open system, then it should allow for stable change to a multi-party system. It will also likely be approved of by OSCE members. If it is a closed system, then it could be the change that is no change at all.
The legislature passed this bill in a reported 17 minutes, which could demonstrate that the compliments and powers granted Mr. Nazarbaev are, uh, unanimously agreed; it could demonstrate a non-transparent carrot-and-stick matrix of which we are not aware; it could also demonstrate a difference in what Kazakhstan perceives as a decorous lawmaking procedure. After listening to U.S. legislators in countless hearings on C-span, I am convinced that one should not confuse public contention with real political dispute, either.
Nevertheless, the law's signing could be decided by international or domestic contention. I think that OSCE countries could reasonably inquire through diplomatic channels whether this is open or closed parliamentary representation, and make their preference for an open system known. They could also ask Mr. Nazarbaev if he plans to sign any bill that gives him unlimited electability, and what he envisions for a post-Nazarbaev succession.
Ultimately, the question does come to Mr. Nazarbaev and how he envisions his historical legacy. It is already one full of personal accomplishment, as the president-for-life accolade shows. Mr. Nazarbaev could also leave a legacy of forbearance. In the U.S., the first president, George Washington, set a 150-year custom that Presidents would not serve unlimited terms. Mr. Nazarbaev could certainly do the same: not because he wishes to emulate an American icon, but to ensure the unfolding, long-range democratization that he has heralded for Kazakhstan.
News stories on developments:
Ria Novosti, May 18, also linked above
Baltimore Sun, May 19
Vremya Novostei, May 21, also linked above
Jamestown Foundation, May 21
(**) Update: President Nazarbaev signed the law on May 22, 2007.
References on the Parliamentary System:
Wikipedia:
Parliamentary procedure
Party-list proportional voting
ACE Project Encyclopedia: all from ACE, “the electoral knowledge network”:
List Proportional Representation: Advantages, Disadvantages
Effect of electoral systems on Party system
Declaration on Criteria for Free and Fair Elections, passed by the Inter-parliamentary Union (1994)
Photos: WedgewoodBC.org; Caspian Partnership for the Future, Azerbaijan; Reuters/BBC; EducationSynthesis
