This week's Economist contains two articles that discuss leapfrogging technology – when a society skips a generation in technology. The usual example is the cell phone, which a developing country can adopt without ever having had widespread landlines. Both Economist articles refer to a World Bank report on Global Economic Prospects. Leapfrogging is usually seen as a hopeful indication that developing economies can quickly establish modern technology-based industries that are both profitable and more environmentaly friendly. The Economist throws a some cold water on that optimism.
Their conclusion is that there are relatively few technologies that can be widely adopted without the expensive and resource-intensive infrastructure investments like electricity and roads. They also point out that all of the more social development sectors (education, governance, economic policy) are also required for new technologies to come into common use. So, although data supports the argument that technology absorption in developing countries will happen on its own, technology diffusion will require a little more effort.