A prominent scholar on Cuban development, Arch Ritter, posits that an impasse in Cuban-US relations may be inevitable for years to come. His article in Canada’s Globe and Mail is worth a read, and his analysis deserves serious consideration.
Ritter’s point is that although Raúl is willing to open channels of dialogue with the United States, he dismissed in advance the possibility of US interference in Cuban domestic affairs, and of Cuba meeting certain preconditions in order for talks to occur (concessions, were they to occur on his watch, would have to be from both sides). Meanwhile, Obama’s campaign trail comments expressed stubborn competing sentiments: “If you take steps toward democracy, beginning with the release of political prisoners, we will take steps to begin normalizing relations.”
In the case that both stick to their metaphorical guns, relations will not move. According to Ritter, the immediate pressure is on Cuba to make a positive move. The Obama administration has lowered restrictions on Cuban-American remittances and travel; how will Castro’s Cuba respond? If it does not reciprocate, that non-action might “terminate the process.”
Yet the United States has great power in this scenario, as well. His closing statements place the burden of Cuban democracy squarely on the United States:
Cuba’s siege mentality will dissipate when the United States stops waving its big stick, and when there is no longer a credible external threat – the pretext for outlawing basic freedoms and democracy will simply disappear. The Communist Party will undoubtedly try to maintain its monopoly, but the groups favouring the political status quo will lose support both internationally and domestically. In time, that status quo will be unsustainable. It will be a difficult process, but Cuba will find its way to democracy.