A local Cuban newspaper in Ciego de Ávila reported this week that Cuba’s population has been declining for several years: between the end of 2005 and the end of 2008 the population shrank by about 7,100. The article ascribes the change to declining fertility coupled with the natural aging of the Cuban people.
Indeed, average age in Cuba has increased, with some 2 million inhabitants over 60 years old. The phenomenon is true across many of the countries of Latin America, as the effects of youthful emigration and declining fertility rates over the course of several decades become more noticeable. In fact, just today Mexico’s newspaper Reforma reported that the Mexican state did not have the capacity to provide services to the current elder population, which is nearing 10% of the total population, and asked a key question: if this is true and if the state is not working to expand capacity, how will the state provide for seniors in 2050, when they will be one out of every three Mexicans?
The Cuban state should be asking itself similar questions. As the price of nickel remains too low for profitable production, investment and financing constrict, and the revenues of the state consequently decline, how can Cuba expect to fund state-provided necessary services for an increasing number of senior citizens? And with its resources and revenues ever more restricted, will it continue to be able to provide for the current population?