Respected Africanist Robert Rotberg has an op-ed piece in The Boston Globe in which he reveals the tightrope that Morgan Tsvangirai has to walk in dealing with Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe. Mugabe still controls far too much of the government, is wildly unpredictable, and has shown no inclination either to give up power or to live up to his agreements.
We know this. It is not news. Which perhaps explains the deeply unsatisfying, or at least seemingly partial, nature of Rotberg’s conclusions:
Washington needs to back Tsvangirai vigorously. Clinton should pressure the new South African government and the South African Development Community to remove Mugabe. She could use the moral power of her office to impress upon African national leaders that Mugabe must go and the unity government be led exclusively by Tsvangirai. But it is too soon to supply substantial aid to a nation-state still manipulated by Mugabe’s despotism.
I have yet to see a satisfactory explanation for how South Africa or SADC are supposed “to remove Mugabe.” That they ought to do so is of little utility without some idea of how, exactly, this rather herculean task would be accomplished. It is undoubtably true that South Africa and SADC have not done enough to pressure Mugabe. But it is far from certain what leverage, short of the threat of war, the SADC nations, even relatively mighty South Africa, have over someone who quite clearly has shown himself not only impervious to outside criticism, but who uses such criticism to his advantage among his still numerous (and armed) supporters.
I can understand the desire not to reward Mugabe with financial support. But surely there are ways to use targeted financial resources and other forms of aid both for political and humanitarian purposes, with Tsvangirai, who has asked the United States and the rest of the world for its help. If the outside world sees Tsvangirai as the country’s future, but have no idea when that future will come, it seems to me that supporting him, and trusting his judgment, is a pretty reasonable first step, even if it seems risky to do so.