Two major themes in 2009 captured the headlines of Latin America over the last year. The first major issue was the debate between the leftists and the more centre-right wing governments within the region. The flare up came amongst the conflict that overtook the government of Honduras in 2009 and the approach different larger powers took to addressing the two opposing sides in the ongoing conflict. The second major issue was the rise of Brazil as a possible international power in the region and worldwide and its new position of power broker in Honduras, Latin America and abroad. A third theme remained from 2008, that of drug conflicts in Colombia and the intense combat between cartels and the government in Mexico.
Person of the Year: Latin America
Considering the amount of attention and move from unknown leader to the public face of left wing governments in Latin America, former President Zelaya, the former ousted leader of Honduras took the media eye and kept up the pressure through public statements, a fly over the capital, entering briefly through a land border and then barricading himself in the Brazilian embassy in Honduras. While a recent vote has likely sealed Zelaya’s fate as President, the amount of support from Venezuela, the US and the OAS, as well as Brazil was uncharacteristic of powers in the region. Zelaya has made his name in the history books and will likely be the face of the politics of 2009 in the region.
Most Unexpected Event: Latin America
There are two events that while not the most obvious, will become characteristic of the region in the long run. First is the ousting of Zelaya in Honduras that was likely more extreme than most expected from the opposition in the country. The second event, or events, are the quick and strong ties Latin America has been making with powers abroad, especially those in the Middle East. Economic ties between the emerging giant of Brazil and Iran and Israel is not the greatest surprise, but economic and possible broad military ties between Venezuela and Iran and Libya could become a major issue in the long run, especially considering the possible nuclear exchanges between the two countries. Venezuela and Iran have been making strong promises of exchanges this year and the open and consistent purchase of Russian and other advanced military equipment in Venezuela is only adding flames to the ongoing Cold War between Chavez and Colombia. An added surprise comes from the source of the relationship, considering Chavez is a populist depending on a referendum earlier this year to keep himself in power as opposed to the lack of popular support for Ahmadinejad in Iran over this past year.
What to Watch for in 2010: Latin America
The year 2010 should be one of great interest for Latin America. The recent strong interest in Brazil as the country to be and the next major economic power will dominate much of the economic and commercial media on the region, and for the first time abroad as Latin America becomes the next Asia in economic terms. The formation of a cohesive policy on Latin America by the US will likely take its permanent form in 2010 as the US seeks to regain lost ground worldwide and challenge the economic and security interests other powers such as China and Iran are taking in what is seen by many as America’s Backyard. Environmental debates between the West and leaders in the developing world will focus on Latin America, Brazil and the Amazon as Climate Change creates perceived challenges to growth in the BRICS. Economically, the US will have to decide if protectionism in the Americas is to its benefit, and if so, the other major economic powers will be allowed take a strong foothold in Latin America. Talks with Iran might flare when more information about Venezuela’s own nuclear program and its connections to Iran becomes the main headline across the US and Latin America. Latin America as a whole, with the exception of Mexico, has fared relatively well over the economic crisis and a new financial respect for Latin America could have been seeded in 2009, and if it grows, it will be seen starting in 2010. Next year will surely take Latin America into a more intriguing position and finally pull the region into a strong and notable position in the global arena.