Ballooning Across the Andes

On Sunday, a Colombian military operation in the southeastern province of Guaviare rescued four prisoners, taken by the FARC 12 years ago. Among them were Luis Mendieta, a police general, and arguably the “highest value” prisoner the FARC had. Once an imposing guerilla force whose power challenged that of the Colombia government, the FARC has been largely eviscerated under Uribe’s watch. When he came to power the FARC held territory equal to …of the country, but now the rebel stronghold includes …square miles of territory.

To the extent that this coup symbolizes a victory against the drug traffickers in Colombia the news is more dour elsewhere. Venezuela has emerged in recent years as Latin America’s main transit point for the export of cocaine to Europe. Worsening corruption under the Chávez government is the immediate culprit of this, but an uptick in drug production or trafficking was largely inevitable. For every gain that Colombia chalks there is an offsetting negation somewhere else in the Andes. This is the logic of the “ballooning effect.” Quell drugs here, and if demand doesn’t change the problem will only re-emerge in a neighboring locale.

Not only are drugs becoming more of a problem in Venezuela, but also in Peru. Earlier this week the New York Times reported that, “a major repositioning of the Andean drug trade is making Peru a contender to surpass Colombia as the world’s largest exporter of cocaine.” From these other Andean posts, more drugs are headed to Brazil, where they are then exported to Africa en route to Europe. So it goes, as Mr. Vonnegut might say.

Graphic from the BBC.