Brazil’s New President: Today the Country Decides!

After a runoff election at the beginning of this month, Dilma Rousseff and Jose Serra take their campaigns to a final vote in order to capture the support and become the successor to one of Brazil’s most popular Presidents, Ignacio “Lula” da Silva. The October 3rd runoff election surprised some as Jose Serra gained enough support in the last two weeks to edge Dilma into the October 31st runoff. Despite Jose Serra’s recent support, the latest polls suggest that Dilma Rousseff have gained at least 10 points in the polls, and the gap seemed to have widened. Today Brazil will vote in their new President, who will take power in January 2011.

Criticism by many in Brazil follow a campaign that was characterised by argument and accusations, but suffered from a lack of a solid policy debate on issues that directly affect the role of the President. Economic policy, an issue of great importance to an ever growing Brazil was not the focus of many debates, likely due to the fact that Lula’s policy, and that of his predecessor Cardoso are seen by many to be linked and is acting as a shared success for both the current government and the main opposition. With Cardoso supporting Serra, and Lula and his 80% approval rating supporting Dilma Rousseff it seems that Lula’s support will become a major factor in solidifying Dilma’s victory. It can be said that the success of Brazil’s current economic status and the desire to keep Brazil on the same track might have contributed to the lack of discussion on fiscal policy, but with the complexities of Brazil’s future economy and the next four years acting as a celebration of Brazil’s recent title as the next economic superpower, economic policy will likely frame the next election, and be a major concern over the next four years for Brazil and its people. Another consideration is that according to the Brazilian Constitution, no President can stand past two consecutive terms, which means legally Lula could campaign to be President again in 2014, but for now his footprint will likely ensure a Dilma win after today’s vote.

Brazil in the last few years have started to pull itself out from national problems that were always considered the destiny of many in Brazil and Latin America as a whole. Poverty and inequality is always an issue that both left and right candidates know are universal problems from everyone in the region and is the key historical problem facing everyone in Brazil and Latin America. Lula can boast that 20 million Brazilians have been lifted out of poverty and more than that amount have entered the lower middle class, but with growth also comes the policies to maintain that growth, an issue which will likely face Dilma as a candidate who has limited political experience and who will face a unique challenge in developing policies that can keep the economic progress in line with “Order and Progress” that until recently, was only a statement in Brazil. Now it can become reality.

Brazil’s progress also comes with a new confident external policy, where many in Latin America turn to Brazil as a mediator, and Brazil has run onto the world stage to immerse itself into global policy challenges in the face of opposition from the US and EU. Closest to home, Brazil must further develop relations in the region, not solely with leftists and pro-American countries in Latin America, but develop economic ties with its closest neighbours and promote not simply a MERCOSUL, but a Southern Cone that is strong and supports a region that is not only a victim of commodity booms and busts, but is a viable long term engine with economic policies that promotes progressive growth in Brazil, but also in Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and the region as a whole. The recent death of Nestor Kirchner in Argentina of a heart attack and the effect on his family, and his wife Cristina Kirchner signals a difficult time for the current President, the successor to her husband who was the last man standing after the economic collapse in 2001. Nestor was able to bring Argentina above water and President Cristina Kirchner was able to push through some policy changes to keep the Kirchner policies alive and reduce Argentina’s debt. Progress made in Brazil and Argentina since Lula was elected and Nestor took office might experience some difficulties at this point. It is important that Dilma and Cristina not only set positive examples as being the first female Presidents of their countries in very exciting times, but also share support in advancing the Southern Cone past the current commodity boom and into real positive growth over a long period of time.