1. Summary of the Past Year
2011 seems to have been a mixed year for renewables. At the research and development level, we have seen maturity in wind, electric transport, solar technology and great marketing which has fuelled record growth in these sectors and this may have contributed to the loosening of public sector funds for more ‘edgy’ technologies such as algae bio-fuels and geothermal ‘hotdry’ rock practices at the beginning of the year. However, as anticipated, the fall back into economic recession has engineered a new round of cuts in tax subsidies in the US and the UK, slightly strengthened the hand of those supporting nuclear power, especially in France and America and we are currently seeing the fall out in Durban with the move towards a low-carbon economy falling lower down the agenda.
If anything, 2011 has been noticeable for the raft of proposals and policy recommendations that have articulated very optimistic, yet sensible procedures for the move to a Low Carbon economy. ‘Towards Green Growth’ by the OECD and ‘basic economics of Low Carbon Growth’ in the UK’ by the Centre for Climate Change and Economic policy streamlined Western procedures on future forecasts, despite being released in the early part of the year and working in the upswing of the global economy. 2011 has also been a good year for the writers, and although most books in this field tend to veer towards the sensationalist there have been some rational voices. Out of all the mainstream titles, The Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Century’s Sustainability Crises by Richard Heinberg compiles a strong list of different thinkers and thoughtful essays whilst Jeremy Rifkin’s The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World managed to give a coherent and relatively balanced account of how technology and the internet is working together to promote environmental interests and a new economy.
2. Most Unexpected Event
In the last twelve months, there have been quite a few unexpected events. Taking away natural disasters such as Fukushima, which are as much a spur for revolution in energy security as anything could be, the failure to adequately prepare for the financial problems has thrown a lot of burgeoning growth in the renewable fields into disarray, meaning it is now harder than ever to prise into the well of private funding and encourage investment, despite the continued growth of wind power.
3. Person (or group of people) of the Year
The major players are the obvious ones. The Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has an unenviable task on his hands navigating the fallout from abandoning nuclear power whilst the participants at the current Durban round are all playing a pivotal role in deciding the fate of renewable energy for the foreseeable future. Another (dis)honourable mention should go to Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper for pulling out of Kyoto, amidst worldwide groans at what it spells for the viability of Kyoto and the adherence to energy targets in general.
4. Forecast for 2012
So what about 2012? There are a number of ways at answering this really. Financially, the future is less than rosy, mostly due in part to reduced tax incentives, fiscal austerity and the lack of necessary investment. Bloomberg analyzed that there will be a shortfall of $4.4 billion in tax equity for renewable industries in the coming year thanks to expiring incentives in the US and there is also no real end in sight with regards to the trade dispute between China and the West over solar panels. However, we may also see a more hardened and bullish renewable sector in response to the lack of ‘safe’ subsidization leading to more vibrancy and aggressive posturing. There is also scope for future investment, as can be seen from the recent pledge by EON to spend $9 billion on renewables to plug Germany’s recent abandonment of nuclear power. At the same time, over in Australia, the government has pledged $AU200 million in capital funds to support start-ups in the green-energy sector.
So although, 2012 will probably not be a year many will look back on with renewable-energy tinted spectacles on, it will offer gains in R&D and will be a year that carries on the slow gradual change away from fossil fuels, even though any prediction given now, will be muddied by what happens in the global economy over the coming months.