Reflecting on 2011: where to start? 2011 has been another busy year for writers, analysts and students of foreign policy: from the Arab revolutions, to the nuclear disaster of Fukushima, to the war in Libya, to the Euro crisis, to the domestic turmoil in the US, so on and so forth. Instead of examining certain events, the reflection will instead focus on the policy-makers, the leaders of the European Union shaping policies. Not only will 2011 be remembered as the year of politics as usual, but also as the failure of the political class to lead. Politicians, especially in Europe, have shown how difficult it is to lead in a globalized world, as illustrated by the attempts at solving the financial crisis, the Eurozone crisis and other crises around the globe. In order to review the year of 2011, I will be giving awards to the members of the European political class based on their accomplishments, behaviors and leading skills throughout 2011.
Silence Award: High Representative Lady Ashton. Ms. Ashton, heading the newly created EEAS, has not only been unable to lead the EU in foreign
Keeping it Cool Award: German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She is leading the only European economy with actual growth and world standing. She has had to deal with European leaders in solving the Eurozone crisis, while facing major criticisms domestically. She has also been able to find some sort of balance and is keeping a strategic approach in dealing with spirited leaders such as Mr. Berlusconi, Mr. Sa
Self-Destruction Award: Mr. Dominique Strauss-Khan deserves this award. He was leaving the IMF with a huge international recognition and the prestige for transforming the IMF into a relevant and reliable international actor. He was supposed to become the next President of France. Instead, the New York drama in May has ruined all his chances to lead France. Since then, he has been spending these last months in courts fighting allegations of sexual harassment, limiting further chances of a possible comeback.
Survival Skills Award: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. One could claim that the award is not appropriate considering the recent
Best Joke Award: Former Greek Prime Minister Papandreou for calling for a referendum on the bail-out plan. Nobody in Europe expected such a move at that time, not even his advisers. Mr. Papandreou took European and world leaders by surprise a week before an important G-20 meeting in Cannes, where European leaders were supposed to call for external funding from the US and China. President of France, Nicolas Sarkozy, was taken short and changed his approach to the G-20 meeting from a strategy of European Unity to a crisis management approach. The call for a referendum scared world leaders over the European’s credibility in actually wanting to solve the crisis, while exposing the considerable tensions within EU Member States. This move also cost Mr. Papandreou his job.
Leadership Award: French President Nicolas Sarkozy for going to Libya. After the lack of prediction by the members of the E
Indecision Award: British Prime Minister David Cameron. Should I stay or should I go? This ongoing debate in Britain concerning the continuity of the European adventure has become quite old and redundant. French President Charles de Gaulle twice opposed the integration of Britain to the EU for the
Best European Politician Award : This award must go without doubt to Ms. Merkel. She is the ultimate European leader at the head not only of the strongest European economy, but also leading the EU. Ms. Merkel’s phone number has become the telephone number of the EU. As argued by
In conclusion, three points need to be underlined in order to think about what is next for 2012. First, it appears that the Eurozone crisis is even worse than expected. Germany has recently even been unable to sell all its bonds, which were once regarded as the safest. The cases of Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal are quite alarming as they have finally spilled-over to France, Germany, and the Scandinavian countries. France is fighting the markets in order to maintain its Triple-A rating. 2011 was not the year of recovery as expected and planned. Based on the instability/volatility of the markets, 2012 could be even worst.
The second point is that politicians may become an endangered species in Europe with the latest trend of appointing technocrats such as Mr. Monti at the head of Italy and Mr. Papandremos of Greece. It will be interesting to see how technocrats will manage this difficult situation of balancing necessary/painful reforms with public demands.
Last but not least, the year 2012 will be a year of global elections. As written in a previous blog, four EU Member States as well as the United States, China, Russia, India, Mexico and so on will see a change of leadership and ultimately political direction. The relations between states and the market will be very interesting to monitor.