Jacob Zuma has won his power play against Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki resigned from office unpopular and largely unlamented, destined to go down as a disappointment, if not a failure, especially after the heady years of Nelson Mandela, years for which, ironically enough, Mbeki was indispensible. Soon enough Zuma will slide into what he now surely sees as his rightful position as president of South Africa.
Or will he? Wouldn't it be an irony if Zuma's power play, coming as it did so late in Mbeki's presidency, had the unintended consequence of delaying or even scuttling Zuma's ascension? After all, what if Kgalema Motlanthe does a good job during these interim months? What if he can unite the ANC, calm skittish investors, and restore normalcy to the country's politics? Motlanthe kept himself out of the power struggle between the ANC's two titans. Yet one can assume that his own ambitions never stopped at the deputy presidency and that his ultimate goal is not being realized as a space filler for Zuma. In short, Motlanthe may like the new seat in which he finds himself.
Meanwhile, Zuma's biggest strength was always embodied far less in who he is or what he stands for than in who he is not. Which is to say that lots of people projected their hopes and dreams on Zuma largely because he was not Thabo Mbeki. But now Zuma's baggage will remain front and center while Motlanthe will garner the fruits of incumbency, however peculiarly gained, and may himself benefit from who is is not, in this case because he is not Mbeki, to be sure, but also because he is not Zuma.
Jacob Zuma wanted Thabo Mbeki out of office. He got his wish. But perhaps he should have been careful what he wished for, because Kgalama Motlanthe may well usurp what Zuma for so long assumed was his. It will be quite the irony of fate if Zuma and his allies see what they assumed was their entitled inheritance slip out of their hands because they decided they could no longer live with Thabo Mbeki for another few months.
