Overview – There were critical developments, breakthroughs and some setbacks in 2009 in the policy, politics, business, economics, science, and technology of climate change and energy. There were moments of high drama in Copenhagen and Washington as well as low comedy. The landmark Waxman-Markey bill passed in the US House of Representatives, the Obama Administration made truly remarkable strides, and the Copenhagen Conference, while not what many hoped for, should provide a keystone for a concerted international effort. Even in the face of a global downturn, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency continued their penetration into the fabric of our economies. The science deepened our understanding of and concern about the climate crisis, while a tempest in a teapot over some communications between climate scientists inflamed a diminishing fringe of skeptics.
Person of the Year – There’s no contest: It’s President Barack Obama. The Norwegian Nobel Committee said “Thanks to Obama’s initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting.” His international diplomacy from the G-8 meetings, to the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate, to Copenhagen, and in numerous bilateral discussions, advanced the focus on and commitment to addressing climate change. His appointments to key cabinet positions have picked up the ball and charged ahead on addressing key energy and environmental issues. His economic stimulus package had a number of robust green initiatives.
Most Unexpected Development – There were enormous and not-at-all-unjustified expectations for the Copenhagen Conference, given the tremendous amount of attention and effort devoted to it over the past two years by high-level policymakers. Even though it should be seen as a breakthrough because all the world’s major economies have, for the first time, committed to making reductions in greenhouse gases, there is an awful lot missing and still to be negotiated. Both Fortune 500 businesses and major environmental organizations are disappointed. That Copenhagen did not produce a much more robust agreement was unexpected.
What to Watch for in 2010 – We need to see how the issues left unresolved in Copenhagen, primarily to what extent developed and developing countries will commit to GHG reductions and on what timetable, will play out. Even though the US EPA is proceeding on a regulatory track, there is, of course, the critical question of what Congress will do. The House has acted and the ball is squarely in the Senate’s court. On the business and finance side, it will be interesting to see how hard the major business organizations, like the US Climate Action Partnership (USCAP) and World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), fight for action on climate change. It will also be critical to see to what extent major businesses, national governments, cities and other governments further the extraordinary progress on clean tech that we’ve been making across the globe.
We are, in my opinion, in a historical transition to sustainable economic development and a world that is much more ecologically sane. Whether we get there sooner rather than later, thus avoiding some of the more dire consequences of climate change, remains to be seen.
