Most of us writing and following the Middle East can easily describe the region and its politics as dynamic. Priorities can change anytime and without anticipation. This can be attributed to the vast pool of players in the region and their ideologies and interests. A decade ago, after Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon, Hezbollah announced that it would not cease its armed struggle against Israel until Israel withdraws from all of Lebanon. In 2006, a war was triggered in hopes to bring attention to the still occupied parts of Lebanon, namely the Shebaa Farms.
Four years on, Hezbollah has been completely silent on the issue of Shebaa Farms. The obvious reason for this silence is that Hezbollah is too preoccupied with internal politics that is pinning the group against some Lebanese parties such as the one led by Saad AL Hariri, the son of the assassinated Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri, and the ongoing investigation of the assassination of the former prime minister. While this stand true as a valid explanation, a second, which i believe is more likely, is the understanding by all parties, Lebanon, Syria and Israel that the issue will be postponed until after the next confrontation foreseen by all three countries. There is a wide consensus in the Middle East that the next war or the “New Middle East” as was termed by the former secretary of state Condoleezza Rice will be reintroduced after its first failure when Israel suffered a nose bleed and failed to eliminate Hezbollah. Wars sometimes can be averted. But the Middle East always needed a regional super power to keep the peace. Currently there isn’t one.
