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Yingluck’s Katrina

Yingluck's KatrinaThere was never a better case study of how not to conduct public policy during an environmental disaster than the way President George W. Bush and his supporting group of miscast advisors handled Hurricane Katrina in 2005. However, after coming to grips with the situation in Thailand and how the administration of newly elected Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra has handled the calamitous floods affecting the country, I’m prepared to say that Bush now has company in such an indecorous club.

Yingluck soared to the nation’s Premiership on a tidal wave (pardon the rather inappropriate pun) of support from the poor, rural majority in Thailand in elections held this past July. The country’s lower class, despondent after the overthrow of Yingluck’s older brother Thaksin in 2006 which was orchestrated by the country’s elite, channeled their discontent into a more avid participation in the democratic process. Protests and demonstrations were held in the streets, and the final culmination resulted in a resounding electoral victory. One would think that such staunch support would be reciprocated by elected officials careful not to alienate their strong, political base.

But then the floods came, and to quote the headline of a story run by The Economist in their latest issue, the results of the environmental devastation have quite literally swept away Yingluck’s government in Bangkok. The worst hit regions of Thailand are, naturally, the poor, rural hills in the north of the country; flooding in the cities of Chiang Rai and Chiang Mai are reported to be very severe. Crops – agriculture being the livelihood of many of the citizens in the north of the country – have been ruined. 10% of Thailand’s rice exports have been destroyed, and the commodity climbed to a three year high last week as a result.

The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt cogently explains Yingluck’s central dilemma.

Each year in Thailand the monsoon comes, and each year the government in Bangkok must decide how far it’s prepared to flood the countryside in order to protect the capital, its people and business interests from rising waters. Normally damage is minimal, but this year was different.

No sooner had newly-elected Thai Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra settled into her job than the worst flooding in 60 years struck parts of the country. Yingluck’s mandate had been to resolve the differences between the urban middle classes and their country cousins who backed her.

However, the surging floods posed an unwanted political dilemma – unleash water from the sluices, sandbag the capital and steer the flow across precious farmland, or allow the water to run its natural course through the waterways of Bangkok, resulting in the obvious devastation of homes and business.

In an effort to protect the capital, Yingluck made the decision to channel the water to surrounding areas, leaving vast stretches of farmland inhabited by poor farmers unprotected. That effort was ultimately a failure, and parts of Bangkok are now being strategically flooded in an attempt to drain some of the water. The economic costs to the city and the country have not been quantified yet, but it is estimated the damage will be in the billions.

No one can prevent acts of nature. We can, however, resolve to be better prepared to deal with them. Yingluck is new on the job, but her response to this calamity will likely shape her legacy. George W. Bush could not stop a hurricane from hitting New Orleans, but he could have sent the National Guard in to evacuate and restore order in the city in consultation with state and local governments. He could have appointed someone with a background in crisis management to run FEMA.

Unfortunately, Yingluck’s decisions have left a lot to be desired as well. Lands have been flooded, crops destroyed, livelihoods ruined, businesses suffering. Moreover, it now seems that it was all for naught as Bangkok, the central metropolis of Southeast Asia, will be hit anyway. If Yingluck’s electoral mandate was to give back to the have-nots and endeavor to reconcile the growing class divide afflicting the country, she will now have to ratchet up her effort for such a lofty ambition even more.

 

Author

Tim LaRocco

Tim LaRocco is an adjunct professor of political science at St. Joseph's College in New York. He was previously a Southeast Asia based journalist and his articles have appeared in a variety of political affairs publications. He is also the author of "Hegemony 101: Great Power Behavior in the Regional Domain" (Lambert, 2013). Tim splits his time between Long Island, New York and Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Twitter: @TheRealMrTim.