The mood about the negotiations in Zimbabwe whiplashes between blinkered optimism and dire pessimism almost daily. The latest is that the negotiations are dead in the water with the sticking point continuing to be the composition of the cabinet. Robert Mugabe and ZANU-PF continue to deny that stalemate has set in, but Morgan Tsvangirai and the MDC […]
Given the levels of political unrest throughout Africa there is something almost quaint about the straightforward avarice of the pirates off the Somali coast who admit in an interview that their primary motivation is money. [Somali pirates in small boats hijacked the Faina, a Belize-flagged cargo ship owned and operated by Kaalbye Shipping Ukraine, on […]
Security forces in Nigeria have arrested nearly 450 suspected militants involved with the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend) in the oil rich Niger Delta, though a number of prominent members of MEND avoided capture. The militants had agreed to a cease fire on September 21 but before that had engaged in […]
Whatever happens with the ongoing negotiation impasse in Zimbabwe, there are social realities that no agreement will be able to reconcile. Even if the process of forging a unity government proves successful, that will mark a beginning of a long slog, not a triumphal endpoint. Hunger is rampant throughout the country with the food crisis […]
Brief comments about three separate but interconnected stories: I am not the only one who wonders if Jacob Zuma might not have overplayed his hand and created a situation the unintended consequences of which might be to prevent him from taking over as South Africa's president in 2009. Patrick Laurence speculates similarly in a piece […]
Jacob Zuma has won his power play against Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki resigned from office unpopular and largely unlamented, destined to go down as a disappointment, if not a failure, especially after the heady years of Nelson Mandela, years for which, ironically enough, Mbeki was indispensible. Soon enough Zuma will slide into what he now surely […]
The Foreign Policy Association has published my latest piece, “A Tale of Two Countries: Change and Crisis in Zimbabwe and South Africa.” Writing commentary on volatile events taking place in real time is always fraught with peril, and in this case I wish I had continued my consistently more pessimistic outlook on Zimbabwe, but on […]
The Foreign Policy Association has published my latest piece, “A Tale of Two Countries: Change and Crisis in Zimbabwe and South Africa.” Writing commentary on volatile events taking place in real time is always fraught with peril, and in this case I wish I had continued my consistently more pessimistic outlook on Zimbabwe, but on […]
[Morgan Tsvangirai, seated, and Robert Mugabe when it seemed an agreement might be at hand. Times of London.] In a move that should surprise absolutely no one, the Zimbabwe negotiations have fallen apart and just about all of the blame belongs on the shoulders of Robert Mugabe. It was only a matter of time. […]
It appears official. South Africa's Parliament has chosen Kgalema Motlanthe as interim president to replace President Thabo Mbeki. Motlanthe, who spent a decade on Robben Island and who has a background in labor union politics will likely have as his main responsibility the healing of divisions, though the wounds might simply be too deep. The […]
The chaos and violence in Somalia continues to intensify. Dozens died in the shelling of a public market in Mogadishu on Monday and more than 100 in total have been killed in scattered fighting in the capital in what observers are proclaiming to be the worst fighting in Somalia in months as Islamist insurgents seek […]
West African states have gotten mixed results in the latest corruption report card from Transparency International: Cape Verde, Ghana, Mali, Benin, Niger, Mauritania, Nigeria, Togo, and Liberia, improved their ranks, with Benin, Nigeria and Togo making significant gains. Falling this year were Senegal, Gabon, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea, Chad and […]
South Africa's political foundation continues to rattle as the result of the ANC National Executive Council's decision to request Thabo Mbeki's resignation. Numerous cabinet members have resigned, including, as promised, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, and unexpectedly, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. Manuel has kept open the possibility that he would return under a new dispensation, but […]
Amidst the tumult in South Africa, Zimbabweans and other observers worry whether Thabo Mbeki's resignation will have a deleterious impact on the still tenuous negotiation process in Zim. Despite Mbeki's de facto ouster, it appears that high-ranking officials in both Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change want Mbeki to continue as […]
It appears that the ANC has tagged party deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe as caretaker president to keep the seat warm for Jacob Zuma. Motlanthe has kept his powder dry in the Zuma-Thabo Mbeki personality wars, which appears to have paid off for him. Motlanthe is left-leaning but gained status within the party for chastising rowdy […]