Cape Town mayor Helen Zille has easily dispatched of two rivals and will take the helm of the Democratic Alliance (DA), South Africa's biggest opposition party. The DA emerged after the disintegration of the National Party and its various and tepid successors. As a consequence the DA drew some of its membership from Nats who found themselves homeless and white liberals who hoped to have a voice after the end of apartheid but did not want to join the ANC.
The hope that DA members have is that the party will grow and draw increased support from the black population. With the ANC facing a number of simultaneous challenges the DA sees itself in position to take advantage of the discontent with the ruling party. And perhaps the DA will in fact draw some support from the margins. But the reality continues to be that the ANC received a higher percentage of the vote in 2004 than it did in 1999 or 1994 despite the fact that much of the current displeasure with the ANC had already become part of the oppositional trope by the last election.
The ANC's main divisions will be internal. The main threat the party will face will come not from the right, not from white liberals, reformed (gereformeerd?) Nats, and a smattering of black allies. A true challenge to the ANC will come from the left, and thus will come from within the tripartite coalition with the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South African Communist Party (SACP). No matter how long South Africans look for a great white hope that can draw black allies to sweep the ANC out of power, the reality is that Helen Zille is not going to lead the most significant challenge to the ANC even if she heads the country's largest opposition party, a status more grandiloquent than meaningful in the context of South African politics. Thabo Mbeki has much about which to be concerned. The DA ranks relatively low on that list.