Hasten his musters and conduct his powers:
I must change arms at home, and give the distaff
Into my husband's hands. –King Lear, (IV, ii)
The personal, the private, the political, the public, and the press issues are nearly inseparable in the Aliev-Nazarbaev contretemps. I feel we are at once watching for gossip, witnessing a future tragedy, analyzing politics, and investigating business. Part of the problem is that the contention is so personal, and has at least on Mr. Aliev's side, been made public. The other part of the problem is that much of the misdeeds alleged and committed are still in the dark; the relationships and jurisdictions of competing Kazakhstani law enforcement agencies is not quite clear; and the ownership of Kazakhstan's press and its government is a strange mix of public and private. Nepotism creates perceived extra-official communication and relations in even the most neutral situations, and the shaky situation between President Nazarbaev, his daughter, Dariga, and her husband, Rakhat Aliev, appears to be growing rapidly more Byzantine.
The areas of concern: Kazakhstan's financial community; its political destiny; the status of its domestic media; the status of its justice department; and the whereabouts of missing persons.
For those of you that might be new to this conflict, I posted on Kazakhstan's Family Dynamic on May 28; Rakhat Aliev's Extradition on June 4; and related Bank Business on June 6. These posts are referenced, and best of all, the comments are informative. The rest can just push on:
Divorce
Rakhat Aliev has announced that he received divorce papers via fax with his forged signature on them: and that he has never consented to a divorce. I spent a good part of yesterday looking for Kazakhstan's divorce law on the Web and had no luck–to see if the speed of this development was contrary to conventional law, for instance. Nevertheless, a divorce with this much property involved usually takes far longer than this.
Changing Nurbank interest
RFE/RL Newsline reported that Dariga Nazarbaeva has been allowed to purchase interest in Nurbank. Here is the newsline entry:
Kazakhstan's Financial Oversight Agency issued a resolution on June
12 allowing Darigha Nazarbaeva, daughter of President Nursultan Nazarbaev, to acquire a large stake in Nurbank, “Kazakhstan Today” reported the next day. Nurbank stands at the center of a complex scandal involving Nazarbaeva's former husband, Rakhat Aliev, whom she recently divorced (see “RFE/RL Newsline,” June 13, 2007). Aliev, a former Kazakh ambassador to Austria, faces extradition from that country to Kazakhstan on abduction charges in connection with an alleged attempt to pressure Nurbank managers. DK
Second, Nurali Aliev, Darigha's son, had been elected to the Nurbank board in January. According to Joanna Willis at Eurasianet: When Mr. Wala joined the Nurbank board, his name disappeared from the roster. Recently, his name has resurfaced within the bank's hierarchy.
Media mandates
After KTK-TV closed some of its operations, it reopened with a new executive in charge. Furthermore, local media had been told not to discuss the issues attendant with Aliev, Nurbank, and related issues. I don't know if this ban remains.
Political consolidation
President Nazarbaev's Nur-Otan party had merged with Dariga Nazarbaeva's Asar party; it has recently incorporated some other smaller parties. Now Kazakhstan's two major opposition parties have merged, and it looks as if Parliamentary elections are imminent. New constitutional mandates for Parliamentary representation also make new elections likely to occur soon. Then, according to Parliamentary process, the government is remade.
So what are the recurring threads in this yarn?
A. Austria: Austria is the home of the investment group that managed Aliev/Nazarbaeva family investments outside of Kazakhstan; Austria is the home of Mr. Wala of Nurbank; two Austrian banks want to purchase Nurbank; and Mr. Aliev resides, is on bail, and might be extradited from Austria.
B. Changing ownership and control strategies: Nurbank ownership has shifted, with Dariga Nazarbaeva's buy-in. It might be easy to assume that the new percentages of ownership come from Aliev's portion, but they may also come from other unnamed previous stakeholders, such as Mr. Aliev's father. Nurbank has also undergone some semi-transparent/not transparent managerial changes. The Karavan/KTK/etc media empire has had managerial changes. With new elections, the government will have new managerial changes.
C. Speed: A quick divorce; an expedited buy-in, previous to the buyout; several seamless management changes; expected quick upcoming elections.
D. Opacity: President Nazarbaev has promised that Mr. Aliev will be prosecuted without favoritism or prejudice, using the standard of the rule-of-law. Nevertheless, one common thread in the commentary about Mr. Aliev's trial is that limiting the scope of investigations is going to be difficult.
Both Ms. Lillis’ article and this one by Marina Kozlova cite Aliev's business associates and regional political commentators as unfavorable to Aliev. One said: “as one of the harshest members of Nazarbaev's family, Mr. Aliev has more enemies than anyone in Kazakhstan.” This statement can be backed up by going through media records–this didn't just start with Nurbank. But the problem is that the previous impunity under which Aliev operated taints many other associates. Mr. Aliev may or may not have committed crimes on behalf of Mr. Nazarbaev, and if so, with or without Mr. Nazarbaev's knowledge; but the failure to respond to previous needs for investigation tends to taint Mr. Nazarbaev's reputation. Furthermore, Mr. Aliev has already signalled with volume that he is prepared to tell it all if he must.
One possible conclusion: Mr. Aliev retains custody to the Austrian bank accounts while Ms. Nazarbaeva takes all of the Kazakhstan banking and media business; the Nurbank sale goes through very quickly; Mr. Aliev's trial is a. closed to the public, or b. takes place after Parliamentary elections, or c. never takes place. I’m betting on b.
Further reading:
Yesterday, RFE/RL posted an article that focuses upon the family component to Central Asia's business environment in several Central Asian states.
P.S. A discouraging day: after finding nothing on Kazakhstan and divorce, I lost my best draft of this post yesterday when the server went down. I think I remembered everything, though. Anyone who knows something about Kazakhstan's family law, or whether Kazakhstan's domestic media is discussing Nurbank: Please Write In.
Special thanks: To Michael Lausch, for sending me the RFE/RL newsline article.
