Golden opportunities to make nice with Turkmenistan:
New diplomacy:
Mr. Berdymukhammedov has decided upon a new spelling (post in Russian) for his name, with one M–Berdymukhamedov, hereinafter. This decision was made to further communication between Kazakhstan and Russia, as the double M appears to be less pronounceable in Kazakh and Russian. Such accommodation is a strong signal that Turkmenistan's president expects to have his country and himself mentioned more often in political discourse in these two very-important countries. Mr. B. has further indicated that he wants to develop multiple bilateral and multilateral relations for economic gain, particularly with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and in the gas sector. This is very encouraging news for the state, as it will allow him to continue to receive offers for better infrastructure investment from states, collective security organizations, and corporations. Mr. Berdymukhamedov also noted that U.S. diplomacy should be less political and more economic, which underscores his priorities.
Possible economic deals:
One new development, which appears to have been rather hastily developed in the news, is that Chevron Texaco appears to be in negotiations with Turkmenistan for gas. In the world arena, Chevron Texaco is taking some severe hits: they recently said good-bye to their Venezuelan reserves in the face of Hugo Chavez's increasing demands. BTW, that is one large reason they have not already developed Turkmenistan's assets: contrary to world opinion, there is a limit to what oil companies will endure for the production of upstream oil. Chevron Texaco also faces increased bargaining over Sakhalin Island reserves, so there is reason to believe that they are interested in Turkmenistan. However, in negotiations any number of points may make it difficult to obtain an agreement. In particular, if the threat of expropriation (as in Russia and Venezuela) cannot be contained, then such an agreement will not, probably, be forthcoming. However, the first steps of any negotiation appear to be following through: both TNK-BP and Chevron-Texaco have permission to open offices in Turkmenistan.
It should also be no shock to learn that the GUAM collective security group is courting Turkmenistan. Composed of other gas-producing or gas-hungry states (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova)-Turkmenistan would be a valuable ally. However, there is no cross-over between GUAM and the Russian-led collective security entities, so I would think this alliance to be less likely.
Social services:
Gundogar and RFE/RL report that pension reform laws come into effect today. Pensions for World War II widows increases to USD 190 per month; Turkmen farmers, whose payments were suspended 18 months ago, will again be receiving checks.
Education:
More science training: The Academy of Sciences is re-opening for the first time since 1996.
Media/Internet:
Wireless is coming to Turkmenistan–according to Turkmenistan's news agency, Mobile TeleSystems may well be offering more internet services within the state. If this works out, it will be another avenue that ends Turkmenistan's isolation, brings information, and allows for greater economic opportunity. New laws are already making a difference in this sphere: just check NewEurasia.net in sidebar at right, for a new cadre of bloggers from this heretofore entirely isolated state.
Everything except the pension laws above marks more a set of possibilities than realities at this point. But in a state where previously, no such possibilities were envisioned, this marks the start of many more opportunities for Turkmenistan's success and self-help.
